Over recent days there have been plenty of statements about the winter supplies of Russian gas to Europe. Majority of these fall to one side of the argument, alleging that Russia is likely to cut off gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine.
Here are the facts, strongly indicating an entirely different possibility.
Fact 1: Allegations. At the end of August, Euractive reported that “Europe faces the increasing threat of a disruption to gas supplies from its main provider Russia this winter due to the crisis in Ukraine.” (link)
But when you read beyond the headline, you get something entirely different. “Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said today (27 August) Kyiv knew of Russian plans to halt gas flows this winter to Europe. “We know of Russia’s plans to block [gas] transit even to European Union countries this winter, and that’s why their [EU’s] companies were given an order to pump gas into storage in Europe as fully as possible,” he told a government meeting, without disclosing how he knew about the Russian plans.”
So Yatsenyuk presented a conjecture – that incidentally boost his own agenda. Media reported it with zero questioning. Meanwhile, Russian officials denied the possibility of such disruption: “It’s unlikely that Russia would cut gas supplies. Ukraine will start siphon off it itself, as it has been the case in the past,” a senior source at the Russian Energy Ministry said.”
We have set the stage: Ukraine says Russia may disrupt supplies. Russia says Ukraine may siphon off gas destined for other buyers in order to satisfy its own needs.
This post was published at True Economics on October 21, 2014.
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