Inside the Ukraine: John Batchelor interviews Stephen F. Cohen

The astounding military events along with the political fallout are far more dramatic under Minsk2 than at anytime during the active Ukraine Civil War.
The danger for continued war in Ukraine will depend on whether Kiev gets outside help.  Whether NATO is involved in the fighting will likely depend on the dove side of the E.U., Merkel and Hollande and others, deciding to go along with Washington. That has not changed, but for Cohen, this is less likely.  However Kiev's fortunes have declined even more since Poroshenko refused a surrender of his forces in the Debaltseve Caldron.  Cohen does a wonderful job of describing those final moments in the Cauldron. As it stands now there is no military of any usefulness for Kiev in the west of Ukraine, and as been stated several times, arming an army actually requires an army to arm—and Kiev simply does not have a military left.
The U.S. (who significantly was not invited to the recent Minsk talks) now has been making even more belligerent war talk. And Moscow is silent; the critical time is at hand. Putin knows. This is a deciding moment for the West, the United States, NATO, Europe, Russia and Ukraine. If Washington continues to push the war option we are looking at boots on the ground and serious political problems in Europe and for NATO.

This post was published at John Batchelor Show