Based on the National Association of Realtor’s ‘Seasonally Adjusted’ Annualized Rate (SAAR) metric, home sales were said to have ticked up 0.7% in September from August. On a SAAR basis they declined 1.5% from September 2016. In his customary effort to glaze the pig’s lips with lipstick, NAR chief ‘economist’ and salesman, Larry Yun, asserted that sales would have been stronger but for the hurricanes that hit Florida and Texas.
This guy should do some better vetting of the data before he tries to spin a story. The Houston Association of Realtors was out a week earlier stating that Houston home sales were up 14% in September from August and up 4.2% from September 2016. Yun’s fairytale is a stunning contrast to what is being reported from Houston. But it illustrates the fact that the data on housing the NAR reports is highly suspect.
As I’ve been detailing for years, the NAR’s existing home sales report is highly manipulated and flawed. It works well for the industry and the media in rising markets, but the real estate market has rolled over and is preparing to head south. Likely rather quickly. As it turns out, the September existing home sales report released Friday reinforces my view that the market is starting to topple over. I go over the details in the next issue of the Short Seller’s Journal, with a couple examples which foreshadow a collapse in the over $1,000,000 price segment of the market. This in turn will affect the entire market. I always suspected that the ‘Big Short 2.0’ would start at the high-end. An example outside of Colorado can found here: Greenwich Sales Plunge.
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on October 21, 2017.
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