Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Third-Quarter Forecast

Based on the principle that transformative world events are not random, but are in fact predictable, Stratfor develops decade, annual and quarterly forecasts. These forecasts are built upon Stratfor’s geopolitical methodology, our framework for identifying and forecasting the fundamental trends shaping the international system. Below are the global trends highlighted in Stratfor’s forecast for the third-quarter of 2017. The complete forecast is available at Stratfor Worldview.
The US Exits Stage Left?
When world leaders gather in Germany for the approaching G-20 summit, they will no doubt make a slew of assertions – some alarmist, others justified – about a US retreat from the global stage. Talk of leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping stepping in to fill the void and uphold global governance on major issues such as free trade, climate change, and security can be expected. But there is an underlying reality to that narrative that should be kept in mind.
Simply put, those hoping to fill the United States’ shoes in leading the world still have their own existential threats to contend with at home. Germany and France are buying valuable time with their electorates to try to repair the European Union and make an example of the United Kingdom’s departure, but the bloc’s members still have vastly different visions of what European integration should look like and how nationalism might fit in. China, meanwhile, is not a globalist power with a model of governance to offer the world; it is a fiercely nationalist power with global clout, caught between the compulsion to operate as a market economy and the imperative to centralize political power under the ruling Communist Party. None of these countries come close to matching the US military footprint or the country’s ability to shoulder the burden that comes with superpower status.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 06/26/2017.

Pope Francis and Angela Merkel: Enemies of European Civilization

Pushing the Global Warming Scam
Two of Europe’s greatest contemporary enemies recently got together to compare notes and discuss how they were going to further undermine and destabilize what remains of the Continent’s civilization. Pope Francis and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met on June 17, in the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace to discuss the issues which will be raised at a Group of 20 summit meeting in Hamburg, from July 7-8.
The Vatican said that Frau Merkel and the Pope discussed ‘the need for the international community to combat poverty, hunger, terrorism and climate change.’* Ms. Merkel, in an obvious swipe at US President Donald Trump, said that ‘we are a world in which we want to work multilaterally, a world in which we don’t want to build walls but bring down walls.’ The reference to ‘walls,’ of course, was to President Trump’s promise to construct a wall on the Mexican-American border. The pope, too, has been critical of Mr. Trump’s proposed plan.
Ms. Merkel also lamented about the Trump Administration’s decision to opt out of the 2015 Paris climate accord. Pope Francis urged President Trump to remain in the accord and gave him a copy of his encyclical, ‘Praise Be,’ when they met earlier this spring. The encyclical elevated ‘climate change’ and protection of the environment as ‘moral obligations’ while it criticized ‘perverse’ economic development models that ‘enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor.’

This post was published at Acting-Man on June 21, 2017.

Are Pope Francis & Angela Merkel Enemies Of European Civilization?

Authored by Antonius Aquinas,
Two of Europe’s greatest contemporary enemies recently got together to compare notes and discuss how they were going to further undermine and destabilize what remains of the Continent’s civilization. Pope Francis and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met on June 17, in the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace to discuss the issues which will be raised at a Group of 20 summit meeting in Hamburg, from July 7-8.
The Vatican said that Frau Merkel and the Pope discussed the need ‘for the international community to combat poverty, hunger, terrorism and climate change.’ Ms. Merkel, in an obvious swipe at US President Donald Trump, said that ‘we are a world in which we want to work multilaterally, a world in which we don’t want to build walls but bring down walls.’ The reference to ‘walls,’ of course, was to President Trump’s promise to construct a wall on the Mexican-American border. The pope, too, has been critical of Mr. Trump’s proposed plan.
Ms. Merkel also lamented about the Trump Administration’s decision to opt out of the 2015 Paris climate accord. Pope Francis urged President Trump to remain in the accord and gave him a copy of his encyclical, ‘Praise Be,’ when they met earlier this spring. The encyclical elevated ‘climate change’ and protection of the environment as ‘moral obligations’ while it criticized ‘perverse’ economic development models that ‘enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.

Warning Signs Point To Major Earthquake On San Andreas Fault

Many experts are now warning that the San Andreas fault in California is now ripe for a major earthquake. Not only that, but should it occur, another earthquake could strike the Bay Area resulting in damages that may be impossible to financially correct.
Although a major earthquake around 100 miles away from Los Angeles may not seem like a big deal, experts warn against taking a lackadaisical stance. A magnitude 8.2 earthquake is far from ordinary and there’s plenty of geological evidence of past occurrences in Southern California. New evidence foreshadows grave consequences for a hugely populated region that’s already on high alert for the next ‘Big One.’ A study published earlier this year concluded that the land on either side of the San Andreas fault has been pushing against the other at a rate of more than 1 inch per year since 1857, and the tensions between the plates are eventually going to give out.
‘So, you expect that amount of accumulation of energy will be released in the future in a large-magnitude rupture, somewhere along the San Andreas,’ said USGS research geologist and study lead author Kate Scharer.

This post was published at shtfplan on June 18th, 2017.

Withdrawing From Paris Agreement Helps the Most Vulnerable

Are you concerned about the poor’s economic welfare? If so, you should celebrate President Trump’s announcement that the United States will withdraw itself from the Paris Agreement.
The Paris climate accord, which was ratified last year, attempts to ‘brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.’ Supporters of the agreement claim it is necessary to avert the disastrous consequences of climate change.
Regrettably, the plan’s supporters are committing the greatest economic fallacy, which Henry Hazlitt, the acclaimed economics writer, warned about in his most prominent work, Economics in One Lesson (1946):
The bad economist sees only what immediately strikes the eye; the good economist also looks beyond. The bad economist sees only the direct consequences of the proposed course; the good economist looks also at the longer and indirect consequences.
While laypeople, pundits, scientists, and economists have focused their attention on what Trump’s decision might mean for climate change, these groups have largely ignored the effect of the agreement on poorer American households. Here are three reasons why withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is good for the poor:
The Paris Agreement raises energy costs for hardworking American households. Under the agreement, the United States pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 level by 2025. This would be accomplished by transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on June 9, 2017.

Fukushima Remains “A Nuclear Radiation Nightmare”, In Pictures

“This is an accident that does not exist in the past tense, but in the present progressive form,” exclaimed Fukushima Gov. Masao Uchibori earlier in March, criticizing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for not explicitly the disaster in his annual speech. ‘It’s not possible to avoid using the important and significant terms of the nuclear plant accident of nuclear power disaster.’
As IBTimes’s Juliana Rose Pignataro notes (and exposes in the images below), it’s been an uphill battle for the coastal prefecture of Fukushima, Japan, since an earthquake and tsunami devastated the region in 2011, causing a nuclear disaster at its power plant.
Six years later, workers are still battling to decommission the plant, where radiation is deadly. Officials expect the cleaning won’t be finished for decades.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 6, 2017.

It’s A “Geopolitical Earthquake”: A Stunned World Responds After Saudi Alliance Cuts All Ties With Qatar

Virtually nobody saw it coming.
Late on Sunday night, the Saudi-led alliance of Gulf Arab states including Egypt, shocked the world when they announced they had severed ties and closed borders with one of the Gulf’s wealthiest, if smallest, neighbors Qatar, a (now former) member of the Gulf Cooperation Council in what we called a “geopolitical earthquake” and what Bloomberg dubbed “an unprecedented move designed to punish one of the region’s financial superpowers for its ties with Iran and Islamist groups in the region.”
***
As we noted first last night, just days after president Trump left the region, a “geopolitical earthquake” took place in the Middle East as the rift between Qatar and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council exploded with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of “spreading chaos,” by funding terrorism and supporting Iran. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt all said they will suspend air and sea travel to and from the Gulf emirate. Saudi Arabia will also shut land crossings with its neighbor, potentially depriving the emirate of imports through its only land border.
Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s support of ‘terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region,’ including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and al-Qaeda. It accused Qatar of supporting ‘Iranian-backed terrorist groups’ operating in the kingdom’s eastern province as well as Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and the U. A. E., gave Qatari diplomats 48 hours to leave.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 5, 2017.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, & Bahrain Cut Diplomatic Ties, Shut All Borders With Qatar

A geopolitical earthquake is taking place in the Middle East tonight as the rift between Qatar and other members of the (likely extinct) Gulf Cooperation Council explodes with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of “speading chaos,” by funding terrorism and supporting Iran.
The dispute between Qatar and the Gulf’s Arab countries started over a purported hack of Qatar’s state-run news agency. It has spiraled since, and appears to be climaxing now.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 4, 2017.

French President Macron Offers Liberal Americans Sanctuary In France

French President Emmanuel Macron, who is also a climate change alarmist, is offering refuge to American liberals upset at President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.
Speaking in English, the leftist president spoke to American liberals specifically upset that Trump has decided to no longer waste American resources on the far from proven science behind climate change. According to conservative media, if you want to enter France, all you have to do, is become a Syrian jihadist, or believe in climate change like it’s your religion.

This post was published at shtfplan on June 4th, 2017.

Liberals Outraged, Demand Termination After Bill Maher Says “I’m A House Ni**er”

French President Macron invited American citizens – especially those with a higher education – who are disappointed with Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris accord, to help ‘make our planet great again’ by moving to that bastion of liberal global values, France , where they will find “a second homeland.”
In a short address to Americans following Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, the French leader said that while he respects President Donald Trump’s decision, he believes it was a “mistake” and invited all Americans (ideally those with a college education) to come join him in France “to work together on concrete solutions, for our climate, our environment.”
And, to show just how progressive he truly is, the French president called on all US “scientists, engineers responsible citizens who were disappointed by the decision by the President of the United States, I want to say that they will find in France a second homeland. I call on them: Come and work here with us. To work together on concrete solutions, for our climate, our environment.”
If the world doesn’t tackle climate change, Macron says, our children will face a dystopian future punctuated by famine, wars and grinding poverty or in other words, he described reality in much of the developing world, especially those nations which the US and French military forces have decided represent geopolitical “national interests.”
‘It is not the future we want for our children…it is not the future we want for our world,’ Macron said.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 3, 2017.

Trump Didn’t Kill The Paris Agreement – It Was Already Dead

Authored by Arthur Wardle via InsideSources.com,
President Trump recently removed the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, heralded by many as a major win for global climate action. The Paris Climate Agreement, signed during the Obama administration, attempted to include the entire world and managed to amass 195 signatories.
Given that international climate negotiations are notoriously difficult, that can only be evidence of two things: either the Paris agreement was a truly monumental agreement in which the entire world came together to respond effectively to a global problem or it was so toothless that nobody bothered to object. All things considered, it was probably the latter.
The agreement itself contains very few direct requirements, instead relying on nations to interpret independently and work toward various ill-defined goals. This problem led James Henson, the ‘father of global awareness of climate change’ and an ex-NASA scientist, to condemn the agreement as a fraud. It lacks any enforcement mechanism, instead relying on nations voluntarily to reduce emissions.
Assuming that countries will voluntarily subject themselves to emissions reductions brings into question the need for an international agreement in the first place. Why else would Exxon, Shell, Peabody and other fossil fuel companies traditionally hated by the environmental movement defend the accord? The excitement of many Paris agreement supporters following these statements exposes their naivete.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 3, 2017.

Hollywood Suffers Meltdown Over Trump’s Withdraw from Paris Climate Deal

Hollywood is having kittens over US President Trump’s recent snub of the Paris Climate Agreement. Especially upset are the elite cadre of multi-millionaire celebrities, along with various and sundry billionaires like Elon Musk, who still believe the earth is heating up because of anthropogenic global warming, aka man-made Co2.
Already, the EU has rejected Donald Trump’s offer to renegotiate the Paris Agreement, opting instead to bypass Washington DC by working with US CEOs, city mayors and state governors – to implement the climate accords.
What Hollywood, Elon Musk, Bernie Sanders and the rest, will not tell you – is that the earth is already entering a global cooling phase which could lead to a mini ice age. Unlike trace warming over a 500 year period, a cooling phase can radical alter the viability of normal life in the Northern Hemisphere, including frosts that will lead to the failure of large parts of the agriculture sector which can lead to severe food shortages – which can make food scarce and much more expensive.

This post was published at 21st Century Wire on JUNE 2, 2017.

Italy, France, Germany Say Paris Accord Can Not Be Renegotiated

Update 2: Macron is now trolling Trump on twitter.
pic.twitter.com/3g5LYO9Osj
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) June 1, 2017

Update 1
In a response to President Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris climate pact, French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday night that the effects of climate change are already evident around the world.
“We will not negotiate a less restrictive accord,” he said, adding that France, Germany and Italy remained united behind the agreement. Macron also reitereated his call that US climate scientists and energy engineers should come to France.
‘The US has turned its back to the world, but France won’t turn its back to the US.”
‘France will not give up the fight. We would have rather led with the U. S. because they are our allies and will always be our allies’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 1, 2017.

Elon Musk Says He Is Departing Trump’s Presidential Councils

Just as he threatened he would yesterday, moments ago Elon Musk confirmed that as a result of Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Treaty, he is departing the presidential councils, stating that “climate change is real” and “leaving Paris is not good for America or the world.”
Am departing presidential councils. Climate change is real. Leaving Paris is not good for America or the world.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 1, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 1, 2017.

Trump Set to Pull US Out of Paris Climate Deal

President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord and is telling people close to him that the US will withdraw from the pact, according to a flurry of media reports in the past hours.
At the G-7 summit over the weekend, President Trump refused on Saturday to recommit to the Paris agreement, while the six other leading industrialized nations reiterated their support for the accord, which sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius.
President Trump, who had promised during the campaign that he would pull the US out of the deal, tweeted on Saturday that he would make his final decision on the Paris Accord this week.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 05/31/2017.