If you like your de-escalation, you can keep your de-escalation. To think that heading into, and following the Russia-Ukraine “summit” earlier this week there was so much hope that the tense Ukraine civil war “situation” would somehow fix itself. Oh how wrong that thinking was considering overnight, following rebel separatists gains in the southeast of Ukraine which included the strategic port of Novoazvosk and which is “threatening to open up a new front in the war” including setting up a land corridor to Russia controlled-Crimea, Ukraine’s president Poroshenko for the first time came out and directly accused Russia of an “Invasion”, or at least a first time in recent weeks, saying he has convened the security council on the recent Russian actions.
And while none of this is particularly new or unexpected, that it happens on a day in which Europe reported yet another batch of very adverse data, including a big drop in European confidence as well as Spain sliding again into outright deflation, is hardly supportive of risk especially following yesterday’s Reuters comment that no ECB action is to be expected absent a dramatic slide in inflation. As a result bond yields have fallen to fresh record lows across the board, pushing US TSYs higher as well, while for the first time equities can’t find solace in the hope that bad news out of Europe is really great news out of the ECB, and as a result have tumbled.
In the Asian session overnight, major bourses are mostly trading softer following the lackluster performance in US and European equities yesterday. The Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite are down -0.5% and -0.6%, respectively. Away from equities, Treasuries have firmed further following on from yesterday’s rally. As we go to print the 10yr and 30yr UST yield is around 2.35% and 3.10%, respectively. Indeed following the 4bp and 6bp decline in the 10yr and 30yr UST yield yesterday, the 10s30s curve is now around 75bps and the flattest as it has ever been since 30 Sept 2009. The 10s/30s was nearly as wide as 100bps in February but in reality it has been on a flattening trend throughout the course of this year. The flatter US rates curve is also providing support to longer dated USD sovereigns in Asia.* Asian stocks fall with the Sensex outperforming and the Hang Seng underperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.3% to 148.3, Nikkei 225 down 0.5%, Hang Seng down 0.7%, Kospi up 0%, Shanghai Composite down 0.6%, ASX down 0.5%, Sensex up 0.3%. 2 out of 10 sectors rise with telcos, health care outperforming and energy, utilities underperforming
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.