Category Archives: Market Commentary

Is There Still Hope For Higher Oil Prices?

Posted on by
Reply

Oil prices have cratered in recent weeks, dipping to their lowest levels in more than seven months and any sense of optimism has almost entirely disappeared. All signs point to a period of ‘lower for longer’ for oil prices, a refrain that is all too familiar to those in the industry.
WTI dipped below $44 per barrel on Tuesday, and the bearish indicators are starting to pile up.
Libya’s production just topped 900,000 bpd, a new multi-year high that is up sharply even from just a few weeks ago. Libyan officials are hoping that they will hit many more milestones in the coming months. Next stop is 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), which Libya hopes to breach by the end of July.
U. S. shale is arguably the biggest reason why prices are floundering again. The rig count has increased for 22 consecutive weeks, rising to 747 as of mid-June, up more than 100 percent from a year ago. Production continues to rise, with output expected to jump by 780,000 bpd this year, according to the IEA. Ultimately, the shale rebound appears to have killed off yet another oil price rally, the latest in a series of still-born price rebounds since the initial meltdown in 2014.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 22, 2017.

HERE ARE FIVE FAKE STORIES CNN PUSHED

Posted on by
Reply

President Trump tweeted about ‘fake news’ Tuesday morning, saying it is at an ‘all time high,’ and demanding an apology:
Fake News is at an all time high. Where is their apology to me for all of the incorrect stories???
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 13, 2017

In response to that assertion, CNN’s Chris Cillizza tweeted:

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on JUNE 15, 2017.

U.S. Begins Importing Iraqi Oil After Saudis Cut Exports

Posted on by
Reply

The United States has begun importing Iraqi oil at a rate of 1.1 million barrels per day to replace export cuts announced by Saudi Arabia late last month, new figures compiled by Bloomberg show.
New data from the Department of Energy suggests that during the first week of June, Iraqi oil entered the U. S. at the quickest rate in the past five years – marking the first time the nation’s exports exceeded those from Saudi Arabia over the same time period.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 8, 2017.

You’d Think We’d Be A Little More Worried…

Posted on by
Reply

By now everyone with an Internet connection is aware of the ‘ransomware’ attack that shut down hundreds of thousands of computers over the weekend.
The fact that the onslaught is just beginning – as the military-grade hacking tools developed by the NSA and recently leaked are weaponized by hackers and released into the wild – should, you’d think, be worrisome.
Most people are probably also aware that North Korea, which claims to have nuclear weapons, just tested a missile capable of carrying a payload to the capital cities of its neighbors. See Putin says world shouldn’t threaten North Korea, after latest missile landed near Russia.
And yet here we are on Monday morning with global stock markets hitting new highs, as if the world is a stable, well-managed, nearly risk-free place. It’s easy to understand cybersecurity and defense stocks doing well today. But banks and home builders? Seems like their world is anything but benign.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on MAY 15, 2017.

Oil Surges After Saudis, Russians Agree To 9 Month OPEC Output Cut Extension; US Futures Flat

Posted on by
Reply

In an otherwise quiet session in which European shares dropped, Asian equities rose and S&P500 futures were little changed, crude oil surged above $49 on high volume, after the Saudi and Russian energy ministers said in Beijing they favor extending the OPEC production cut for 9 months, though the end of Q1 2018.
WTI rose more than 3%, rising above the 50DMA, climbing to the highest intraday price in almost two weeks after the comments, with subsequent comments by Putin pushing crude to session highs, and Brent above both its 200 and 50 DMA.
While output curbs that started Jan. 1 are supposedly working according to the Saudi and Russian energy ministers – clearly debatable considering there has barely been any reduction in the record global inventory glut during the first 4 months of the OPEC production cut – global inventories aren’t yet at the level targeted by OPEC and its allies, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in Beijing alongside his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak.
‘The agreement needs to be extended as we will not reach the desired inventory level by end of June,’ Saudi Arabian minister Khalid Al-Falih said at event with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. ‘Therefore we came to the conclusion that ending will probably be better by the end of first quarter 2018’
The ministers agreed the deal should be extended through the first quarter of 2018 at the same volume of reductions, which however according to many analysts won’t be enough to decidedly lower inventories considering the recent rebound in Libya and Nigeria production as well as a the near-record production out of the US. For now, however, it was enough to send oil surging wiping out more than 2 weeks of losses.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 15, 2017.

25% Of Snapchat’s Market Cap Just Disappeared On Whopping $2.2 Billion Loss

Posted on by
Reply

SNAP’s first earnings release since going public is shaping up to be a disaster, with the stock un-popping after hours and down 25% after the company disappointed on virtually every metric in its Q1 earnings release:
Revenue of $149.7MM missed expectatations of $158 million The net loss of $2.2 billion was obviously bigger than anything expected. Adjusted EPS of $2.31 missed as well The company burned through $173 million in free cash flow, a nearly 70% increase in cash burn compared to a year ago. But the main reason the stock is getting pummeled, is that Daily Average Users rose from 122 to 166 million, missing expectations of 168 million, and up from 158 million in Q4.
Just as bad, ARPU actually declined sequentially, dropping from $1.05 in Q4 to $0.90 in the first quarter.
The only good news is that SNAP had $3.2 billion in cash, although at the rate its cash burn is growing, it will have to sell more shares soon.
The result: 25% of SNAP’s market value just disappeared as the street threw up all all over yet another failed growth story.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 10, 2017.

Miami ‘Preconstruction’ Condo Flippers Drown in Glut

Posted on by
Reply

Because there have been zero resales, ‘the actual market value of the units in the project is uncertain.’ Miami, particularly near the waterfront, has experienced one of the hottest post-housing-bust construction booms in the country, creating a veritable mecca for ‘preconstruction’ condo flippers – often institutional investors – that are trying to make a buck. The construction boom is quite a sight to behold, still, as seen from a cruise ship, where crane counting might while away the time. This photo, taken by Matthew Brandley, shows the rising condo towers in the New Edgewater area.
That this might eventually create a supply problem is clear. Alas, ‘eventually’ got here in a hurry.
Brickell, an area that is part of Miami’s ‘condo corridor’ by the waterfront, is just an example, similar to New Edgewater above. Andrew Stearns, founder of StatFunding, who analyzed the Brickell condo area – more on that in a moment – mused about the New Edgewater area versus the Brickell area: ‘Total condo disaster there too, but different neighborhood.’

This post was published at Wolf Street on May 10, 2017.

GAO: Biggest Fiscal Threat to U.S. Is Interest on Treasury Debt – Not Social Welfare Programs

Posted on by
Reply

On Wednesday, the General Accountability Office (GAO), the bipartisan congressional watchdog, released an in-depth report on the U. S. government’s challenging fiscal outlook. Despite its surprising revelations, the study received little to no coverage by major media outlets.
While most Americans have been led by political rhetoric to believe that government programs like Medicare and Medicaid are the biggest threats to the future U. S. fiscal picture, the GAO study found the following:
‘While health care spending is a key programmatic and policy driver of the long-term outlook on the spending side of the budget, eventually, spending on net interest becomes the largest category of spending in both the 2016 Financial Report’s long-term fiscal projections and GAO’s simulations.’
The GAO cited a simulation that showed net interest payments on U. S. debt increasing ‘from $248 billion in fiscal year 2016 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2045 in 2016 dollars.’

This post was published at Wall Street On Parade By Pam Martens and Russ Marte.

Saudi Power Struggle Could Destabilize The Entire Middle East

Posted on by
Reply

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,
Political instability in Saudi Arabia is growing as King Salman bin Abdulaziz begins to overhaul the Saudi government, putting a long list of family members into positions of influence while increasing the power of his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. These actions have the potential to lead to a direct conflict with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The expected internal power collision, predicted by many analysts, finally seems to be heating up. The real surprise, however, is that it is taking place while King Salman is still alive rather than during the succession period. King Salman’s royal decrees, in which he has appointed two of his other sons, Prince Abdulaziz and Prince Khaled as Minister of State for Energy Affairs and Ambassador to the United States respectively, has opened up Pandora’s box.
At the same time, King Salman has decided to re-establish all allowances and benefits which were canceled last September during the oil price bust. Additionally, the King has stated that two months of salary will be paid as an allowance to the military and security personnel fighting in Yemen. The latter is a complete reversal on economic measures taken in 2016 when Saudi Arabia was hard hit by the global slump in oil prices.
The power struggle in the coming months could emerge inside of King Salman’s palaces as the current government overhaul is a direct move to increase the influence of the Salman branch of the Al Saud family tree. During this time, media sources in Saudi Arabia and the GCC have indicated that King Salman’s decrees have moved several allies of his son, Mohammed bin Salman, into key positions. King Salman has also shown a keen interest, likely supported or instigated by Mohammed bin Salman, in strengthening relations with the United States. The appointment of Price Khaled as ambassador to Washington is convincing evidence of this suggestion.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 5, 2017.

Go Ahead And Cheer The Fraud

Posted on by
Reply

The lies are ridiculous.
“Obamacare” has not been repealed, nor replaced.
Deductibles and premiums will not come down, because exactly nothing has been done to address the underlying cost of medical care, and that is, of course, what drives the cost of “health insurance.”
It also probably won’t pass the Senate, so that The House has done so is immaterial.
But heh, go ahead and take a victory lap Mr. Trump for something that hasn’t passed the Senate yet, and by the way, may I remind you that the Executive, which you head, can cut the cost of medical care by 80% or more in an afternoon.
You simply need to enforce the law, 15 USC specifically, which is your ******ned job and which you took an oath to do — and have, since your inauguration, serially and intentionally violated every single day since.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2017-05-04.