Oil: The Battle For Market Share & The Saudi’s 1985 Playbook

OIL: the battle for market share & the Saudi’s 1985 playbook
Stay positioned for ‘a good sweating’ = stay short the SXEP (European Oil & Gas Stocks) and sell rallies
In 1985, the Saudis chose volume over price to defend their market share against new production from the North Sea, as well as cheating/discounting from other OPEC members in a period of weak demand. With Iraqi exports ramping up, in spite of the war with Iran, the Saudis went around the world signing netback deals, which incentivized refiners to buy/produce as much product as possible…the market was oversupplied and the price of oil fell from $31.72/bbl in November 1985 to $10.42/bbl at the end of March 1986. A fall of 69% in four months!
The Saudis had warned the world of their intentions, but many thought ‘it was merely an elaborate warning designed to scare other OPEC countries and restore discipline.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/15/2014.

FOX Upset, Demanding Australians Call Sydney Siege a ‘Terrorist Attack’

21st Century Wire says…
The Sydney Siege has come and gone, with what looks like another example of a known nut case who let out on the streets by the Security Services, only to reek havoc on the community.
Australian riot police ended the 16-hour hostage standoff started by 50-year-old self-styled, Iranian-born Muslim ‘cleric’, Man Haron Monis, as police did a blitz-style assault on the Lindt chocolate store in Martins Place in Sydney.
Monis is said to have a very long and disturbing criminal rap sheep which includes among other things, multiple counts of sexual assault, and an accessory to murder charge. He was also a local media darling, well known to local press and on social media playing the role of ‘Sheikh’, which raises questions as to whether or Sydney police intelligence unit were involved in ‘managing’ Monis, or whether or not he was being supervised by a government psychologist and taking SSRI anti-psychotic medication.
Incredibly, Monis was allowed to roam the streets on bail instead of being detained in a security criminal or mental facility – where he clearly belonged.

This post was published at 21st Century Wire on DECEMBER 15, 2014.

Sydney Siege Gunman Identified As Iran-Born, Self-Described Cleric Man Haron Monis

One of the very strange non-sequiturs in today’s Syndey hostage siege, now approaching its 15th hour, is that the gunman who prepared for a long standoff with authorities somehow forgot to pack the ISIS flag and as reported earlier, has been said to demand it from the outside world. Strange to say the least.
But the bigger question remained: who is he? Now, courtesy of a report in Australia’s The Age we know.

The man who continues to hold more than a dozen people hostage, placing Sydney’s CBD into lockdown is no stranger to the NSW police or the judiciary.
Self-described cleric, Man Haron Monis, 50, first came to attention of police when he penned poisonous letters to the family of dead Australian soldiers seven years ago.
Last year he was charged with being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife and mother of two.
Most recently, he was charged with more than 50 allegations of indecent and sexual assault relating to time allegedly spent as a self-proclaimed “spiritual healer” who dealt with black magic at a premises in western Sydney more than a decade ago.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/15/2014.

Oil price drop a conspiracy, Iran’s president says

While describing the slump in oil prices as a plot against Middle East producers, Iran's president said Wednesday it's time to wean the budget from oil.
"The slide in crude oil prices is not merely an economic issue, and it stems from a conspiracy and political planning by certain countries," President Hassan Rouhani said.
Price variances among the 12 blends from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen by some as a sign of internal rivalries among producers that can withstand lower oil prices and those that can't.
Western economic sanctions on Iran's energy sector are already impacting the health of the Iranian economy. For fiscal year 2013-14, the World Bank estimates the Iranian economy has contracted at an annual rate of 1.7 percent.

This post was published at UPI

Justin Raimondo: Pearl Harbor and the Engineers of War — How FDR lied us into WW2

What gets me are the lies. Iraq’s "weapons of mass destruction" – Iran’s (nonexistent) nuclear weapons program – the Vietnamese "attack" in the Gulf of Tonkin – Germans bayoneting Belgium babies – the sinking of the USS Maine: over the long and bloody history of US imperialism, these are just a few of the fabrications US policymakers have seized on to justify Washington’s aggression. It’s quite a record, isn’t it? Not only that, but there’s been little if any acknowledgment by the American political elites that they’ve ever lied about anything: it’s all been thrown down the Memory Hole, along with whatever sense of shame these people ever had.
Indeed, if there is an award for sheer shamelessness then surely it must go to the court historians who preserve the myth of Pearl Harbor, insisting that the Japanese launched a "sneak attack" on the US fleet. The official version of the narrative is that the Americans, dewy-eyed innocents all, were simply minding their own business, not bothering anybody and certainly not aggressing against the predatory Japanese, who were fighting harmless "agrarian reformers" led by Mao Tse-Tung in China. Suddenly, totally without provocation, and out of the clear blue the Japs – to use the term routinely employed by the Roosevelt administration and its media minions at the time – crossed thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean to commit murder and mayhem for no good reason other than their own inherent evil.
What’s amazing is that even though this nonsense has been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked over the years by historians concerned with discovering the truth – as opposed to getting tenure at some Ivy League university – the Big Lie is still not only believed by the hoi polloi but also stubbornly upheld by the "intellectuals." As to whether they actually believe it or not, that’s largely irrelevant as far as they’re concerned. As Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., the archetypal pointy-headed liberal intellectual – and idolator of FDR – put it: "If he [the President] was going to induce the people to move at all, he had no choice but to trick them."

This post was published at Anti War

The Big Foreign Policy Lie: The War Party Couldn’t Rule Without It

What gets me are the lies. Iraq’s ‘weapons of mass destruction’ – Iran’s (nonexistent) nuclear weapons program – the Vietnamese ‘attack’ in the Gulf of Tonkin – Germans bayoneting Belgium babies – the sinking of theUSS Maine: over the long and bloody history of US imperialism, these are just a few of the fabrications US policymakers have seized on to justify Washington’s aggression. It’s quite a record, isn’t it? Not only that, but there’s been little if any acknowledgment by the American political elites that they’ve ever lied about anything: it’s all been thrown down the Memory Hole, along with whatever sense of shame these people ever had.
Indeed, if there is an award for sheer shamelessness then surely it must go to the court historians who preserve the myth of Pearl Harbor, insisting that the Japanese launched a ‘sneak attack’ on the US fleet. The official versionof the narrative is that the Americans, dewy-eyed innocents all, were simply minding their own business, not bothering anybody and certainly not aggressing against the predatory Japanese, who were fighting harmless ‘agrarian reformers’ led by Mao Tse-Tung in China. Suddenly, totally without provocation, and out of the clear blue the Japs – to use the term routinely employed by the Roosevelt administration and its media minions at the time – crossed thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean to commit murder and mayhem for no good reason other than their own inherent evil.
What’s amazing is that even though this nonsense has been thoroughly andrepeatedly debunked over the years by historians concerned with discovering the truth – as opposed to getting tenure at some Ivy League university – the Big Lie is still not only believed by the hoi polloi but also stubbornly upheld by the ‘intellectuals.’ As to whether they actually believe it or not, that’s largely irrelevant as far as they’re concerned. As Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., the archetypal pointy-headed liberal intellectual – and idolator of FDR – put it: ‘If he [the President] was going to induce the people to move at all, he had no choice but to trick them.’

This post was published at David Stockmans Contra Corner on December 8, 2014.

Be Careful What You Wish For: 5 Ways Russia’s Demise Could Spread Around The World

Authored by Larry Elliott, originally posted at The Guardian,
Russia matters. It mattered in 1998 when the shock waves from its debt default reverberated around the world. And it would matter again should the plunging oil price lead to economic collapse. That’s despite the fact that Russia is a massive land mass with a relatively small economy. It accounts for only 3% of global GDP and it is dominated by an energy sector that is responsible for 70% of exports.
To an extent, the structure of Russia’s economy should mitigate contagion risks. Lacking a modern manufacturing sector, it is not vital for global supply chains and, in theory, any other energy producer could make good the disruption to oil and gas supplies in the event of a deep and damaging recession.
But there are at least five ways in which a crisis for Russia could spread.
Russia’s immediate problems have been caused by the sharp drop in the price of crude and it is not the only one to be suffering. Venezuela and Iran are finding it hard to cope with oil down at $70 a barrel. If Russia goes, it will be a case of: who’s next? Second, Russia still has close economic links with eastern Europe, so a collapse would have serious consequences for countries such as Poland and an already imploding Ukraine. Western Europe, too, would be affected if for any reason gas supplies through Russia’s pipeline were cut off.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/07/2014.

Russia Has Western Enemies, Not Partners – Paul Craig Roberts

The US House of Representatives has joined Hillary Clinton, Obama, the neoconservatives, Washington’s vassals, and the American and European presstitutes in demonizing Russia and President Putin. The House resolution against Russia is a packet of lies, but that did not stop the resolution from passing by a vote of 411 for and 10 against.
The entire world should take note that the American people are capable of electing only ten intelligent representatives. Ten people out of 435 is 2 percent. And yet Washington declares itself to be the ‘exceptional,’ ‘indispensable’ country empowered to exercise hegemony over the world!
No one should be surprised to see Washington, its presstitutes and European vassal states using the same propagandistic lies against Russia and Putin as were used against Iraq and Saddam Hussein, Libya and Gaddafi, Syria and Assad, Afghanistan and the Taliban, and Iran. Washington is fearful of the rise of Russia and China, of the leadership demonstrated by Vladimir Putin, of the formation of new organizations independent of Washington, such as the BRICS. While the George W. Bush regime was sidetracked by its ‘six week, $70 billion war,’ which turned out to be, so far, a multi-trillion dollar 13-year losing operation, Putin kicked out some of the American agents who were contaminating Russian sovereignty and rebuilt the country.
When Putin blocked the planned US invasions of Syria and Iran, Washington decided that something had to be done about Putin and Russia. Washington had spent $5 billion dollars buying Ukrainian politicians and funding fifth column NGOs. With Putin distracted with the Olympics, Washington struck, overthrew the elected Ukrainian government and installed its puppets.
The puppets set about antagonizing Ukraine’s Russian population in provinces that formerly were part of Russia but were attached to Ukraine by Soviet leaders when Russia and Ukraine were the same country. Russians threatened with death and the banning of their language naturally did not want to be victims of Washington’s puppet government in Kiev. Crimea voted to reunite with Russia from whence it came, and so did the eastern and southern provinces.
Washington and its the vassals and presstitutes lied and described these acts of self-determination as Russian invasion and annexation. Russia is falsely accused of having troops occupying the breakaway provinces.

This post was published at Paul Craig Roberts on December 5, 2014.

US Declares War on Russia (Step One)

21st Century Wire says…
Behind the White House’s political smokescreen in Ferguson and New York, US lawmakers were busy sliding through a pre-declaration of war against Russia.
The latest resolution by the US Congress, most likely drafted and presented to the speaker by Washington DC-based Neoconservative think tank, Foreign Policy Initiative (formerly Project for a New American Century), calls for renewed political, and military support for Fascist and NeoNazi-sympathizing regime in Kiev, Ukraine, which will include:
– US aid for Kiev regime to keep using military against ethnic Russians in east Ukraine. – US funding for more weapons and military support in the Ukraine. – More US funding for foreign language, pro-US, and anti-Russian propaganda throughout eastern Europe and in countries bordering Russia.
In all but name, this US resolution is preliminary declaration of war, moving Washington right up to the final step, which is a formal declaration of war. Based on its recent record of engaging in foreign conflicts, it is unlikely a final declaration will come, as the US has already set numerous precedents already by waging Wiemar-style undeclared wars, or by simply bypassing its domestic checks-and-balances by waging any war through NATO.
In addition to ‘on the books’ warfare, there would normally be additional budgetary provisions included in this latest initiative for funding and directing proxy war and terrorist guerrilla against Russia through non-state actors in the region – which has already been done by the US already against Iran, as reported by New Yorker Magazine’s award-winning investigative reporterSeymour Hersh in 2008:

This post was published at 21st Century Wire on DECEMBER 4, 2014.

US Agreement With Iraq That US forces Assured Immunity, Boots On The Ground Guaranteed – Episode 533

The following video was published by X22Report on Dec 4, 2014
Thousands of Spanish youths are leaving Spain to look for employment. Retail stores are closing before the holiday season. 4 million homeowners are still underwater. The baltic dry index dropped another 40 points. Obama administration admits premiums are rising. 17 states are suing Obama over immigration. NDAA includes pay cuts to troops and land grabs. House of representatives pass bill to isolate Russia. US makes agreement with Iraq that US forces will receive immunity while in Iraq. Boots on the ground is now guaranteed. False flag warning, Iran cyber attacking the US, the Islamic State cyber attacking the US. Be prepared for a major event.

When Deceptions Go Unchallenged by Our Free Press

A willing ‘suspension of disbelief’ is essential to enjoy a good play or other fiction but it’s a disaster when the media adopts it in place of skepticism – especially toward those in government.
And yet, that is exactly what happened with the Affordable Care Act. It’s hard to not to conclude that the media willingly suspended disbelief when it came to the many claims made by President Obama, legislators and supporters of the Affordable Care Act. The now obvious 2013 ‘Lie of the Year’, for example, was anything but obvious to most Americans before millions lost the insurance coverage they liked. Why?
Taken together with MIT economist Jonathan Gruber’s recently revealed admissions that deception was part of the plan all along, it’s fair to ask, ‘What happened to our watchdog press?’ There has been much gnashing of teeth over Professor Gruber’s candor but virtually no self-examination by the media of its role in helping to perpetrate a fraudulent sales job on the American people.
Indeed, in retrospect it appears as if the Administration counted on a compliant media not asking the hard questions. This disinterest in the truth, as much as the lies themselves, has contributed to the mistrust and anger that divides the nation. So far the media has refused to take any responsibility.
When the CIA failed to predict the fall of Iran there was acid and deserved criticism of its failure to fulfill its fundamental mission. That same kind of criticism should be a part of the public conversation now about the role of the media in missing deliberate efforts by this Administration to employ outright falsehoods to pervert ‘consent of the governed’. Only with deception, said Dr. Gruber, could the law win enactment. He embraced government deception ‘for the greater good’ but the media should not have. It was a failure of the media’s most fundamental duty in a free society.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on December 3rd, 2014.

Falling Oil Prices Could Cripple ‘Vulnerable’ Russia, Trigger World War III

The Cold War 2.0 is going hot, and while it may someday be fought with planes, tanks, guns and bombs, the first front is being fought with oil and shale gas.
The U. S. and European sanctions against Russia will become more severe and crippling in the face of drastically falling oil prices – prices which are falling drastically because of the unprecedented boom of shale gas fracking both domestically in the U. S. and abroad in Ukraine and other locales. The oil & gas giants like Chevron and Exxon Mobil have created revolutionary conditions with now direct consequences on U. S. foreign policy and global war for dominance. Via Bloomberg:
Oil’s decline is proving to be the worst since the collapse of the financial system in 2008 and threatening to have the same global impact of falling prices three decades ago that led to the Mexican debt crisis and the end of the Soviet Union.
Russia, the world’s largest producer, can no longer rely on the same oil revenues to rescue an economy suffering from European and U. S. sanctions. Iran, also reeling from similar sanctions, will need to reduce subsidies that have partly insulated its growing population. Nigeria, fighting an Islamic insurgency, and Venezuela, crippled by failing political and economic policies, also rank among the biggest losers from the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to let the force of the market determine what some experts say will be the first free-fall in decades.
‘This is a big shock in Caracas, it’s a shock in Tehran, it’s a shock in Abuja,’ said Daniel Yergin…
The destabilization in Ukraine and numerous spots in the Middle East – including the ISIS-threatened Iraq and Syria – have been mere preludes to what is coming.

This post was published at shtfplan on December 1st, 2014.

The Coming Arctic War

Part One of this series detailed how the Russians are preparing to win World War III, while America continues to dismantle her military power. The question that many are asking is where will the next great war to end all wars take place? Many speculate that it will take place in either Syria or Ukraine. However, mounting evidence would suggest elsewhere. Please consider the following quote from one of my military sources.
‘Probably not in Ukraine or in Syria and certainly not in Iran, will we see the commencement of World War III. One of my most trusted sources has informed me that the United States has secretly brokered a deal with Canada and Norway to militarize the North Pole as a proxy military force. The two nations will provide some of the manpower and forward bases of operations while the U. S. provides the weaponry and funding. I have said it before and I am saying it again, it looks more and more like World War III will have its beginnings in the North Pole where it is likely that we will see the first direct face-off of NATO forces and the Russian Federation’.
The Recent History
Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was finalized in 1982, countries can lay claim to the ocean floor well beyond their borders so long as they can provide convincing scientific evidence to prove that a particular seabed is an extension of their continental shelf. Already, countries have sovereign rights to resources within 200 nautical miles of their territorial waterways. For a country to determine whether they have economic sovereignty beyond that distance, the UN agreement requires comprehensive mapping that establishes some sort of geologic justification for the claim. And where the Arctic is concerned, Canada, the US, Norway, Russia, and Denmark have been amassing scientific evidence for more than a decade in an effort to increase their piece of this resource-rich pie.
Russian Motivation for Militarily Occupying the North Pole

This post was published at The Common Sense Show on 30 Nov, 2014.

Making Gasoline from Water? Yep!

A German company says it has developed an engineering installation capable of synthesizing petroleum-based fuels from water and carbon dioxide. The ‘power-to-liquid’ rig converts gases extracted from water into liquid hydrocarbon fuels. This is the opposite side of what happens with trying to use energy as a weapon. Raising the price or trying to curtail supply, forces others to find alternatives. A year-end closing for oil BELOW $75 in crude will have a very serious impact.
Russia gets most of its oil in difficult places. Its cost of production is around $65. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan has much easier oil to extract and as such they fear that Russia may move in simply for the oil. The collapse in oil will have a very profound impact in the world economy. The top exporter is Saudi Arabia with Russia holding the second spot. Iran and Iraq come in 3rd and 4th. Declining oil prices renders all these governments economically in trouble. Their budgets have risen assuming higher oil prices forever, but when we forecast that oil would rise to $100 back when it was $10 in 1999, many assumed we were nuts and that the world could not handle such a price. That was necessary we warned to spark alternative fuels. Today we have electric cars.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on November 30, 2014.

Dmitry Orlov: Russia’s Patience Is Wearing Thin

Having lived in the former USSR before immigrating to the US, Dmitry Orlov has an invaluable perspective on both the US and Russian perspectives, as well as Ukraine.
With the western propaganda flying thick and heavy, it’s more important than ever to cut through the chaff and learn what we can about the most important geopolitical realignment (and renewed tensions) in recent memory.
Well, look, Russia is a place that’s extremely dynamic as changing response to challenging environment, to changed environment, very popular throughout the world, at peace with most of the world, even with nations that are at war with each other, both sides will still talk to Russia and have friendly relations. Russia has a splendid relationship with both Israel and Iran for instance.
The United States is a nation that can’t get anything together, can’t get anything on, not education, not healthcare, nothing. It’s basically sinking into a cesspool of its own making it can’t respond at all. And now, it is basically being shown up to be quite incompetent in playing this international game. Now, what happens if you can’t play a game by the rules is you’re penalized and you forfeit the game. So, either the US leadership will learn how to play by the rules or they forfeit. I see those are as the only two real outcomes.
There’s a difference to how the Russians approach the world and how the Americans approach the world. So, for instance, Americans like to threaten. If you don’t do this, then we will do X, Y and Z. That’s a typical American behavior.


This post was published at PeakProsperity on November 29, 2014.

Will Tehran Commit Nuclear Hara-Kiri?

To no surprise, nuclear talks between Iran and major world powers have become stalemated.
Iran will not sink ‘to its knees’ to win a nuclear deal with the great powers, said its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the failure of six months of talks in Vienna.
However, the talks will continue until at least next March. Pity the poor negotiators: besides being excruciatingly boring, dealing with the tough, savvy Iranians is like pulling teeth. The only nationality I ever saw get the better of Iranians in negotiations were Armenians.
The United States has been waging economic and political warfare on the Islamic Republic since 1979. Only Cuba has been pounded longer. Both have suffered hugely.
Of late, Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians have been murdered in broad daylight. Nuclear installations have been sabotaged. The Stuxnet virus allegedly unleashed by the US and Israel against Iran’s centrifuges risked a catastrophic explosion or the release of nuclear contamination. In neighboring, Iraq, some 300 of its former nuclear technicians and scientists have been mysteriously murdered during the US occupation.
Iran’s economy has been very seriously damaged by the US-led boycott and commercial restrictions. Iranians are suffering mounting inflation, shortages of goods, and a collapsing currency. Iranians are fed up being the target of western sanctions.

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on November 29, 2014.

Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged

But, but, but… all the clever talking heads said they wil have to cut…
*OPEC KEEPS OIL PRODUCTION TARGET UNCHANGED AT 30M B/D: DELEGATE WTI ($70 handle) and Brent Crude (under $75 for first time sicne Sept 2010) are collapsing… as will US Shale oil company stocks and bonds (and thus all of high yield credit) tomorrow. The Saudis are “very happy” with the decision, Venzuela ‘stormed out, red faced, furious.’ Commentary from various OPEC members appears focused on the need for non-OPEC (cough US Shale cough) nations to “share the burden” and cut production (just as the Saudis warned yesterday).
It appears OPEC members have varying opinions…
*KUWAIT’S OIL MINISTER SAYS HAPPY WITH OPEC OUTPUT DECISION *OPEC DECISION IS `VERY HAPPY’ ONE: [SAUDI ARABIA] NAIMI *IRANIAN OIL MINISTER SAYS HE’S `NOT ANGRY’ WITH OPEC DECISION #OPEC Venezuela Ramirez storms out red faced. Looked furious.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/27/2014.

“Regin” World’s Most Advanced Cyber Snoop Hits Russia, 4 Other Countries; Western Intelligence Agency Likely Responsible

Telecom companies in Russia and Saudi Arabia have been hit by the world’s most sophisticated hacking software to date.
Symantec believes a Western intelligence agency is responsible.
Please consider World’s Most Advanced Hacking Spyware Let Loose
A cyber snooping operation reminiscent of the Stuxnet worm and billed as the world’s most sophisticated computer malware is targeting Russian and Saudi Arabian telecoms companies.
Cyber security company Symantec said the malware, called ‘Regin’, is probably run by a western intelligence agency and in some respects is more advanced in engineering terms than Stuxnet, which was developed by US and Israel government hackers in 2010 to target the Iranian nuclear programme.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, November 23, 2014.

Iran Nuclear Talks Extended 7 Months; $700 Million In Monthly Sanctions Lifted

In what is hardly a surprising outcome, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear talks have decided it best for all to extend (and pretend) the discussion for another 7 months:
*IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS EXTENDED UNTIL JULY 1, OFFICIALS SAY Diplomatic teams will reconvene in December and the US State Department is proclaiming “good progress” in a brief statement. 7 more months of sanctions, a call with Putin today, and OPEC later in the week… one wonders if any of this will be relevant in 7 months. Additionally, it seems beggars can be choosers as P5 1 says Iran can get $700 million per month in frozen assets back…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/24/2014.

What To Expect From OPEC This Week

OPEC faces numerous dilemmas this week as it meets to decide what, if anything, is to be done about falling oil prices. As Goldman notes, consensus expectations have shifted to only expecting a modest cut announcement on Nov 27th. Furthermore, any large cut that would lead to a large price rally would be self-negating as it would enable US producers to hedge 2015 production and sustain elevated production growth.
Via Goldman Sachs,
We expect at most a modest cut
We expect OPEC to announce at most a modest reduction to current production on November 27. As we have discussed, we believe it is in OPEC’s interest to share the burden of balancing the oil market surplus with US shale oil production (and Price decline continues to lead deteriorating fundamentals). This can only be achieved by reducing output at a modest pace at first to allow for low prices to slow US production growth. In particular, any large cut that would lead to a large price rally would be self-negating as it would enable US producers to hedge 2015 production and sustain elevated production growth. Recent communication by OPEC members suggests indeed the expectation of only a modest reduction in production, with Libya, Iraq and Iran further commenting that they would not be reducing output (Exhibit 4).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/23/2014.