JPMorgan Warns Military Escalation In Ukraine “May Lead To A Lehman-Style Shock”

The sudden military escalation in Ukraine in recent days has, according to JPMorgan’s Alex Kantarovich, reduced the earlier hopes that the high level meeting in Minsk on 26 August would help to defuse the conflict. As Kantarovich warns, the markets are now bracing for the US/EU responses. In the worst case scenario, now appearing more likely, severe pressure on stocks may extend. As he concludes, “we believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock.”
Via JPMorgan Cazenove,
Lehman moment. We believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock. We note there are substantial fundamental differences between the current situation and the 2008/09 crisis; the oil price is now holding up relatively well and the economic contraction may not be that deep. On the other hand, for traded stocks, the challenges and risks to investability presented by sanctions could be practically open-ended. We demonstrate that revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50% from an index perspective, and ~40% from the forward P/E perspective (Fig. 1 and 2).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

Central Bankers Will Attack ISIS and The Assad Regime – Episode 452

The following video was published by X22Report on Aug 27, 2014
France’s President replaces the economy minister with a central banker. France is collapsing, unemployment hits an all time high. China and Russia start using rubles and yuan for oil trade bypassing the dollar. NATO planning for more bases, military assets in Eastern Europe. US preparing to bomb the Islamic State which is a cover to bomb Syria and to remove Assad. The UN came out with a report which implicates the Islamic State and Assad in war crimes. The report also mentions the false flag chlorine chemical attacks which occurred in April. Russia is now being targeted as carrying out cyber attacks on the financial system. Be prepared the false flag event is coming.

New Book- CIA Plotted to Assassinate Nixon Over Vietnam Troop Withdrawals, Detente

Senator Howard Baker learned Agency Infiltrated and sabotaged the Watergate Break-in
Roger Stone, former Advisor to Richard Nixon and New York Times bestselling author of The Man Who Killed Kennedy – now says the same forces who killed JFK tried twice to assassinate President Richard Nixon for the same reason, Vietnam and their bitter opposition to detente.
A Washington Insider for forty years, Stone’s sweeping new book Nixon’s Secrets traced the ark of the career of the 37th President, Richard Milhous Nixon, the most brilliant, sad, bold, awkward, disciplined, insecure, proud and visionary man to ever serve as President.
Stone claims the CIA tried to kill Nixon twice in Miami in 1972. Nixon further inflamed the CIA for demanding their records on the Bay Of Pigs and the JFK assassination. ‘CIA Director Richard Helms and Nixon had so much on each other that neither could breathe’ says Sen Howard Baker in Stones’s book. When Baker asked Nixon who really killed JFK, Nixon barked ‘you don’t want to know’ according to CBS producer Don Hewitt.
The author who proved LBJ, the CIA, the Mob and wealthy right-wing Texas Oilmen plotted to kill John Kennedy in his first book The Man Who Killed Kennedy – the Case Against LBJ now says ‘The CIA, the JOINT CHIEFS, NSC all opposed Nixon’s rapid draw-down of troops from Vietnam, his arms control agreement with the USSR and the opening to China’ said Stone. ‘They thought Nixon would be the ultimate hard-line anticommunist and were shocked by his pro-peace foreign policies.’ Stone told the UK Daily Mail.
Stone says a military spy ring started spying on Nixon as early as 1969- with a Navy courier copying documents from burn bags, desks, files and even Henry Kissinger’s brief case and send the material to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Thomas Moorer says Stone and co-author Mike Colapietro, a veteran investigative Journalist.

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on August 27, 2014.

Forget Geopolitical De-Escalation – Here’s The Real Reason Why Oil Is Tumbling

As with every other asset-class in the world now, fundamentals have taken a very distant back-seat to both liquidity (flow) and positioning (technicals) as traders are increasingly (in one way or another) on the same side of the same trade. Mainstream media will proclaim US energy “independence”, US sanctions ‘winning’ over Putin, or US airstrikes ‘calming’ down Middle East uncertainty; but the real reason oil is plunging is… the biggest mass liquidation of speculative longs in recorded 30 year history over the last few weeks…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/26/2014.

The Kardashians And Climate Change: Interview With Judith Curry

Climate change continues to drive energy policy, despite the fact that there is no way to reconcile eradicating energy poverty in much of the world with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This is one of the many conundrums of the climate change debate – a debate that has been taken over by social media and propaganda, while scientists struggle to get back into the game and engage the public.
Judith Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as the co-author of over 140 scientific papers. Her prolific writings offer a rational view of the climate change debate. You can find more of Judith’s work at her blog: JudithCurry.com
In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Curry discusses:
‘ The Koch-funded climate denial machine ‘ Why the public is losing trust in scientists ‘ How alarmist propaganda has skewed the climate debate ‘ How climate change has contributed to a new literary genre ‘ The impact of social media and the ‘Kardashian Factor’ ‘ Climate and the ‘clash of values’ ‘ Global warming or global cooling? ‘ The Polar Vortex and ‘global warming’ ‘ Extreme weather hysteria ‘ Why climate change should not drive energy policy
Oilprice.com: You’ve talked a lot about the role of communication and public relations in the climate change debate. Where do scientists fail in this respect?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/25/2014

The ISIS’ Top Line: $2 Million In Daily Revenue From “Oil Sales, Extortion, Taxes And Smuggling”

A few days ago when we commented, somewhat in jest, on the seemingly impressive strategic planning behind the Islamic State jihadists becoming a “commodities trading powerhouse” (when it was revealed that ISIS had sold the grain it had stolen from the Itaqi government back to the government), we described just how well-versed in the ways of the modern world ISIS was: “from quickly taking control of (i.e., robbing) a central bank, to capturing the latest and greatest in US military equipment, to staging an amazing blitz-campaign that has resulted in the creation of a caliphate and captured the bulk of northern Iraq and a third of Syria including all of the former country’s oil fields, to even having glossy year end annual reports, one would almost be forgiven in assuming that some vastly more strategic minds are behind what on paper at least would be a far more disorganized force.”
Now, thanks to Bloomberg we can quantify this particular strategy, and put top-line numbers with the ISIS faces, so to speak: “The Islamic State, which now controls an area of Iraq and Syria larger than the U. K., may be raising more than $2 million dollars a day in revenue from oil sales, extortion, taxes and smuggling, according to U. S. intelligence officials and anti-terrorism finance experts.“
In other words, a well-greased government machine, and not only that but one which has an infinitely greater net worth than the US, because with a net worth of some $2 billion (and rising by $2 million daily), the Islamic State has a “worth” of some $17 trillion more than the United States, which instead of equity is funded entirely through debt, and ever more debt, thanks to the ongoing devaluation of the world’s reserve currency.
Some more on how ISIS became the world’s first self-contained, and funded, jihadist entity:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/25/2014