“China’s Big Reshuffle”: A Preview Of The Year’s Biggest Political Event, China’s 19th Party Congress

Nearly two years after the historic, and still mysterious “Shanghai Accord” which in early 2016 halted what at the time appeared to a global collapse in capital markets courtesy of what appears to have been unprecedented political, fiscal and monetary coordination between the developed world and China, on October 18 the world turns its attention to what is arguably the most important political event of the year, and the logical conclusion to the stabilization process which started with the Accord, when the Chinese Communist Party kicks off its 19th Party Congress, the political event that will determine the country’s leadership lineup and policy priorities for the next five years.
Given the emphasis on maintaining stability in the run-up to this pivotal political transition, what the Congress will mean for China’s economy, its markets, and its place in the world is why Goldman has dedicated its latest “Top of Mind” periodical to the Congress, with editor Allison Nathan asking two experts on Chinese politics how Xi Jinping – who is already widely regarded as the most powerful leader of China since Mao Zedong – can use the reshuffle to further consolidate power. And, more importantly, what he intends to do with it: pursue economic reforms more aggressively or maintain the status quo.
Specifically, five of seven seats on the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) – the senior-most CCP leadership – are expected to turn over, as is about half of the Politburo, the 25-member decision-making body that sits just below the PSC.
To explore these issues, Goldman sat down with two Chinese political experts, David Shambaugh of the George Washington University and Willy Lam of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Both anticipate the Congress will cement Xi Jinping’s absolute authority over the CCP and the country. And both raise the possibility that Xi could be paving the way to stay in power beyond two terms, in a break with historical norms. However, Shambaugh and Lam view Xi as a visionary, not a reformist. They believe his overriding goal is to strengthen and perpetuate CCP rule, with no tolerance for policies that could destabilize the political order. (Lam argues, for example, that Xi is determined to avoid the political self-criticism that he believes brought down the USSR.) As such, both experts see only limited prospects for economic reform. But one possibility to watch: a potential reshuffling involving the role of premier that might signal a more aggressive reform stance.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 15, 2017.

The West Can’t Smell What Eurasia is Cooking — Pepe Escobar

A tectonic geopolitical shift happened in Astana, Kazakhstan, only a few days ago, and yet barely a ripple registered in Atlanticist circles.
At the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001, both India and Pakistan were admitted as full members, alongside Russia, China and four Central Asian ‘stans’ (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).
So now the SCO not only qualifies as the largest political organization – by area and population – in the world; it also unites four nuclear powers. The G-7 is irrelevant, as the latest summit in Taormina made it clear. The real action now, apart from the G-20, also lays in this alternative G-8.
Permanently derided in the West for a decade and a half as a mere talk shop, the SCO, slowly but surely, keeps advancing a set up that Chinese President Xi Jinping qualifies, in a subdued manner, as ‘a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation.’
That’s the least one can say when you have China, India and Pakistan in the same group.

This post was published at Sputnik News

In An Act Of Desperation All Agendas Are Pushed, Prepare Yourself For The Big One – Episode 1306b

The following video was published by X22Report on Jun 14, 2017
The democratic party is now taking it to the next level they are now suing the President. Germany wants complete control of communications and wants to finger print children. India and Pakistan join the Shanghai Cooperation. US soldiers are not fighting in Philippines. Trump give the Pentagon more power to deploy troops. The forces in Syria bring in a missile launcher across the border in Syria. There was an event near DC and a senator was shot. This false flag is now being used for many different agendas.

How America Could End Up In An Unexpected War With China

Three decades ago the People’s Republic of China was an economic backwater. Today the PRC sports the world’s second-largest economy. Shanghai most dramatically illustrates the country’s transformation. The city is filled with stylish office buildings, five-star hotels, luxury stores and foreign visitors.
Reflecting their success, the Chinese are increasingly confident as well. If not yet a great power, the PRC seems destined to eventually share global leadership with the United States. And its people know that.
Which means future U. S.-China relations could be rocky.
Ties turned confrontational under the Obama administration, which announced a ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalance’ to Asia. Washington officials unconvincingly claimed that the policy was not directed against Beijing. The Chinese may be many things, but they are not stupid.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 28, 2017.

End of empire

“Already, China dominates world trade. Her own economy is already significantly larger than that of the US on the PPP estimates. While being the largest consumer of raw materials, China also exports more finished goods by value than any other country.”…
In last week’s Insight article, America’s Financial War Strategy, I described how the Chinese government viewed the geopolitical scene. It is clear from earlier remarks by the Peoples Liberation Army’s senior strategist, Major-General Qiao Liang, that the view in Beijing is that America perpetuates her empire through the financial benefits to America from America’s actions against other nations, friend or foe. These actions can be either military or financial, or even both. This week, similar views were expressed in Moscow by Sergey Glazyev, a senior advisor to President Putin.i
There are many questions that arise from last week’s analysis that I chose not to address, in the interest of focusing on the main theme. It concentrated on geopolitics and economics as the Chinese see them, financial and currency issues mentioned in passing. This article addresses perhaps the most important subsidiary issue, and that is how China visualises the future, in terms of monetary policy.
China’s eventual objective
If nothing else, the Chinese have a sense of history and destiny. They have had a glorious past, stretching back millennia, and once controlled most of the Asian heartland in the days of Genghis and Kublai Khan. But even then, China was essentially inward-looking, protecting her own cultural values. Trade with Europeans in the centuries following Marco Polo’s visit was mostly at the behest of European travellers, not the Chinese. She exported her art and culture to visitors, and did not import European values.
This was a mistake, implicitly recognised by China’s current leadership. This time, China has embraced Western thinking and technology to further her own progress. The development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in recent years is the platform for China in partnership with Russia to embrace the Asian continent through peaceful trade, improving the lives of all the citizens of the many nations who are and will become members. The SCO promises a revolution in the wealth and living standards of over 40% of the world’s population, and associated benefits for its supplier-nations on the other continents.

This post was published at GoldMoney on APRIL 27, 2017.

A New Trend Emerges – Digital Gold ‘Gifting’ Gains Popularity in China

I rarely write about gold these days, but the following from Reuters caught my attention.
BEIJING/SHANGHAI, March 7 China’s virtual gifting market, typically the domain of plugged-in young consumers celebrating special occasions or flirting, is luring major financial institutions keen to boost trade of another auspicious commodity: gold.
Tencent’s digital gold packets, known as ‘microgold’, are backed by the country’s biggest bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). They allow users to send funds that track the real-time value of gold to friends over the firm’s popular messaging platform WeChat.
It’s a financial innovation on the concept of virtual gifts, such as digital roses and chocolates, more commonly used in online communities and which have more sentimental value than any tangible economic worth.

This post was published at Liberty Blitzkrieg on Thursday Mar 23, 2017.

“The time to invest in Iran is now” — Pepe Escobar

It’s a beautiful late winter morning, the snowy Alborz mountains glittering under the sun, and Professor Mohammad Marandi from the faculty of world studies at the University of Tehran is taking me on the road, westbound.
Sprawling west Tehran is a decentralization/connectivity spectacular, with its brand new highways, metro lines, artificial lakes and megamalls. While not on the epic scale of the construction rush in Beijing or Shanghai, it is similar in spirit and comparable to what’s going on in Istanbul.
The professor – arguably Iran’s leading political and cultural analyst -and I had been on a running conversation for days on all aspects of an evolving Russia-China-Iran strategic partnership, the massive Eurasia integration project pushed by China, and its myriad interconnected challenges.
Watching west Tehran go by, it was hard not to connect this new normal to the atmosphere of excitement surrounding the Iran nuclear deal struck in Vienna in the summer of 2015. But this had actually started even before President Hassan Rouhani came to power in 2013, ‘linked to Iran’s stability and rising regional status,’ Marandi said.

This post was published at The Saker

Indicators of a Chinese Collapse

I recently returned from a weeklong trip to China, specifically Shanghai and Nanjing. In Shanghai, I met with a group of forty of the top China economists, mostly from major Chinese banks and brokers, at an annual event called the China Chief Economist Forum. I was a keynote presenter at the forum to 400 invited guests made up of major institutional investors and wealth managers in China.
In Nanjing, I met with provincial government officials and economic development experts. They are building a high-tech research center of excellence called UTown on the southern outskirts of the city. I was even permitted to enter a top-secret Huawei laboratory used for testing new internet data-mining algorithms. Huawei is closely affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army – and is banned from most business in the United States because they are suspected of hacking and espionage aimed at U. S. critical infrastructure.
In addition to our proprietary models and analytic techniques – including complexity theory, causal inference, and behavioral psychology – I have always been of the view that there is no substitute for foreign travel and face-to-face contact with both experts and everyday citizens in the countries we are trying to understand.
That’s why I also took every opportunity I could find to speak with drivers, clerks, bellhops, and passersby. That’s not as difficult as it sounds. In a country like China, few citizens have traveled abroad and they are often eager to practice English conversation with a real American.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on February 6, 2017.

Major Foreign Policy Shift: Turkey Abandoning EU For SCO

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on November 20 that Turkey did not need to join the European Union at all costs. Instead, it could become part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), or Shanghai Pact. The Turkish leader said he had already discussed the idea with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev.
The SCO is a Eurasian political, economic, and military organization founded in 2001 in Shanghai. Its members are Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan speak Turkic languages.
India and Pakistan are to become full-fledged members by the next meeting at Astana in 2017. Mongolia, India, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan are SCO observers. In 2013, Turkey got the status of SCO’s dialogue partner. The other country with the same status is Belarus. Dialogue partners are entitled to take part in ministerial-level and some other meetings of the SCO, but do not have voting rights.
Turkey formally applied to become a member of the European Union in 1987 and accession talks began in 2005. Its ambition to become part of the bloc dates back to the 1960s. Its prospects of joining look dim after 11 years of negotiations. The human rights are a divisive issue.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 23, 2016.

America Is Divided More Than Ever, Just What The Elite Want – Episode 1133b

The following video was published by X22Report on Nov 21, 2016
Trump says there is no registry for Muslims. America has never been more divided according to a Gallup pole. This is what the elite want, a divided America to keep up fighting among each other. Obama issues 5 billion in regulation while the house of representatives pass a law which will allow them repeal any regulations. UN Global Warming Treaty down delayed for 2 years. Dueterte meets Putin and lashes out at the US. Turkey looking to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Terrorists will not let civilians leave Aleppo. The US and the UN push agenda to split Syria, make proposal to split Aleppo and let the terrorist have their own region. Syria rejects proposal. Russia building a full scale naval base in Syria. Turkey and NATO pushing the idea for a safe zone in Syria.

Sun setting on the West: Turkey could join SCO with Russia and China instead of EU, President Erdogan says

November 2016 – TURKEY – Turkey could join the Shanghai Pact with Russia and China instead of the European Union, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said. Mr. Erdogan said Turkey should ‘feel relaxed about the EU and not be fixated’ about joining it, as his country’s decades-long hopes of joining the EU reached their lowest point in the aftermath of the failed 15 July coup. ‘Some may criticize me but I express my opinion. For example, I have said ‘why shouldn’t Turkey be in the Shanghai Five?” he told Turkish journalists on a plane from Uzbekistan, Hurriyet Daily News reported.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – also known as the Shanghai Pact – is a loose security and economic bloc led by Russia and China, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Mr. Erdogan said he had already discussed the idea with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has floated plans for Turkey to join the SCO several times, a move which could scupper the country’s long-standing EU membership bid.

This post was published at UtopiatheCollapse on November 21, 2016.

Duterte Meets Putin, Lashes Out At Western “Hypocrisy”, While “Fed-up” Turkey Wants To Join Shanghai Bloc

As China’s president Xi was setting the stage for a new regional free-trade deal dubbed the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru now that Obama’s TPP has suffered a quiet death, a new geopolitical axis was being formed.
In the first meeting between the Philippines’ outspoken president with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Peru, Duterte held nothing back in his views about major powers like the United States, suggesting he is sticking to his guns on re-aligning foreign policy away from Washington, despite his warm words for incoming U. S. president, Donald Trump.
Reiterating a recurring talking point from his national addresses, Duterte lashed out at Western “bullying” and “hypocrisy” in his first meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and said when it came to alliances, the United States could not be trusted. “Historically, I have been identified with the Western world. It was good until it lasted,” he told the Russian leader. “And of late, I see a lot of these Western nations bullying small nations. And not only that, they are into so much hypocrisy,” he said, according to a transcript of Saturday’s meeting provided by his office cited by Reuters.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 20, 2016.

Chung Kuo — Doug Casey

This article is entitled Chung Kuo, which means Middle Kingdom.
The Chinese have long seen themselves as superior to every other race (like almost every race does) and the center of the world. It’s because they were so confident of this that they never ventured out as Europeans did, with a brief exception in the 15th century when a gigantic Chinese fleet, composed of ships vastly superior to those of Europe, ventured as far as Africa. Since dropping the ball on world conquest back then, or at least exporting their culture wholesale, they’ve been in stasis, and on the receiving end of what Europe had to dish out.
The Chinese resent the ‘gweilo’, or ‘laowai’ (loosely translated in Cantonese and Mandarin respectively as “foreign devil”) for appropriating places like Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai, and numerous other enclaves. They resent episodes like the Opium Wars, which resolved whether they were to be used as a market for narcotics. They never learned to appreciate lots of foreign soldiers running around their countryside, even though Westerners felt it was a birthright.
The Chinese absolutely resent the U.S. government parading its aircraft carriers off the China coast as if it owned the place. The U.S. government is not showing strength, it’s displaying arrogance and stupidity by antagonizing a sleeping dragon. And the thought of American politicians – which is to say an assortment of insular lawyers, egg-headed wannabe social engineers, and refugees from Arkansas trailer parks – negotiating with people who’ve been through what the Chinese have, is just scary. The U.S. government may feel like it can call the shots now because it has a dozen aircraft carriers and a couple thousand fighter planes. But it’s making a serious enemy while it’s going to bankrupt America in a counterproductive projection of force to the other side of the planet. And that’s not all. Because the day will go to the people with the most wealth, not the ones that have the most expensive military hardware.

This post was published at International Man

BREXIT: Russian President Putin’s Statement on UK ‘Leave’ Vote

21st Century Wire says…
As the BREXIT debate whips itself up into a frenzy after the UK voted to leave the EU, we are publishing the statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the subject of this vote. Vladimir Putin responded to media questions at the end of his working visit to Uzbekistan to attend the SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organisation] Heads of State Council, timed to coincide with the 15th anniversary of the SCO.
In this statement, Putin clearly admonishes outgoing UK Prime Minister, David Cameron for making wild accusations of Russian foul-play leading up to the ‘Leave’vote:
Question: I would like to ask you about Brexit. Well before the vote, it was alleged that Russia would be happy if Britain decided to leave the EU. After the vote, there were also comments to the effect that this plays into Russia’s hands and, in this context, that this can have a positive impact on the issue of lifting sanctions on Russia. How do you assess the results of the vote? Whose side were you on? How will Russia’s relations with the EU and Britain now be built? What implications will this decision have for our economy?
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: We are in Tashkent, where the SCO summit has just ended. Therefore, I would like to begin by thanking President Islam Karimov and all our Uzbek friends for what they have accomplished during their presidency of the SCO

This post was published at 21st Century Wire on JUNE 26, 2016.

Market Talk June 17th, 2016

A little light relief for markets ahead of the weekend with core Asian equities clawing back some of momentum lost earlier in the week. The Nikkei did manage a 1% bounce whilst the Shanghai and HSI closed 0.5% higher. Much had been expected of this week given all the Central Bank activity but we head into the weekend still in search of clarity, a pillow of confidence and direction. All news over the weekend will be pointing to the BREXIT vote and its consequences. This will be the most important vote the UK will be making in decades, shaping capital flows the world over.
Europe continued yesterdays bounce with solid 1% gains for FTSE, DAX and CAC and a 2% rally in the IBEX. However, next weeks events will determine not just the rest of the months direction but the direct of Europe.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Jun 17, 2016.

One World – One Order: Beijing, Washington to hold joint Naval Drills

May 2016 – GEOPOLITICS – Despite South China Sea territorial disputes exacerbating diplomatic disagreements between Beijing and Washington, the Chinese navy will participate in a series of US-initiated maritime drills this summer that are said to be the world’s largest. On Friday, US Vice Admiral Joseph Aucoin announced that China would take part in the biannual Washington-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises, to be held off the Hawaii coast in June and July.
China has taken part in previous RIMPAC drills, but an ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea led to a deterioration of cooperation between the two countries. ‘The PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) will participate in an exercise, the largest exercise that we do, in a couple of months,’ Aucoin said to journalists at a news conference in Shanghai. Earlier in March, the US suggested that they may ‘reassess’ the participation of Beijing in the upcoming drills.

This post was published at UtopiatheCollapse on May 7, 2016.

04.18 0500 Market Update: Cue the Pump Monkeys, OPEC panic Fading

Last night’s Asian session was interesting as the Japanese earthquakes and OPEC disaster in Doha provided the deflationary double whammy which scared investors out of Tokyo and Shanghai with sizable drops in those markets(charts via YahooFinance):

This post was published at John Galt Fla on April 18, 2016.

Shanghai wealth management firm comes crashing to earth as executives arrested

Zhongjin Capital Management made a splash in the past couple of years in Shanghai. The wealth management firm’s imposing branch office on Shanghai’s historic Bund pulled in many eager investors seeking the double-digit returns it promised on short-term financing products. It had a big profile, sponsoring popular Shanghai TV dating program “Saturday Date” and signed up domestic billiards star Pan Xiaoting as a spokesperson.
But this week, the image of riches and success that it had cultivated came crashing down. Police said they arrested 21 executives linked to Zhongjin Capital on April 5 on suspicion of “illegal fundraising,” a loosely defined term applied to irregular behavior in China’s energetic but opaque shadow banking sector.
The only person named by Shanghai police so far has been top executive Xu Qin, who local media said had been arrested at the Shanghai airport on his way to get married in the Vatican.

This post was published at Business Insider

China Is About To Unleash A Monster Housing Bubble (And Record Capital Outflows) In Six Easy Steps

One week ago we showed the disturbing degree to which the latest (and greatest) housing bubble among China’s Tier 1 has gripped the broader public, when we reported that local speculators are waiting in line for days to flip homes.
Visually, it looks as follows – the bubble is entirely in the Tier 1 cities; for now everyone has given up on the other regions which are suffering greatly as a result of the bursting of the commodity bubble and have seen an exodus of recently unemployed workers:

The demand for housing in Shanghai and Shenzen has gotten so “bubbly” that even the government-run news agency Xinhua on Wednesday warned of increasing leverage risks and called for further tightening measures to rein in the market. Which is ironic, because just days later the People’s Congress announced it would support the Chinese housing market, sending conflicting messages of whether it does or does not want another housing bubble.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/07/2016.