JPMorgan Warns Military Escalation In Ukraine “May Lead To A Lehman-Style Shock”

The sudden military escalation in Ukraine in recent days has, according to JPMorgan’s Alex Kantarovich, reduced the earlier hopes that the high level meeting in Minsk on 26 August would help to defuse the conflict. As Kantarovich warns, the markets are now bracing for the US/EU responses. In the worst case scenario, now appearing more likely, severe pressure on stocks may extend. As he concludes, “we believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock.”
Via JPMorgan Cazenove,
Lehman moment. We believe that with the significant deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, markets may treat this as a Lehman-style shock. We note there are substantial fundamental differences between the current situation and the 2008/09 crisis; the oil price is now holding up relatively well and the economic contraction may not be that deep. On the other hand, for traded stocks, the challenges and risks to investability presented by sanctions could be practically open-ended. We demonstrate that revisiting the post-Lehman lows would imply downside of 50% from an index perspective, and ~40% from the forward P/E perspective (Fig. 1 and 2).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

Washington Piles Lie Upon Lie – Paul Craig Roberts

The latest Washington lie, this one coming from NATO, is that Russia has invaded Ukraine with 1,000 troops and self-propelled artillery.
How do we know that this is a lie? Is it because we have heard nothing but lies about Russia from NATO, from US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, from assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland, from Obama and his entire regime of pathological liars, and from the British, German, and French governments along with the BBC and the entirety of the Western media?
This, of course, is a good reason for knowing that the latest Western propaganda is a lie. Those who are pathological liars don’t suddenly start telling the truth.
But there are even better reasons for understanding that Russia has not invaded Ukraine with 1,000 troops.
One reason is that Putin has invested heavily in diplomacy backed by unprovocative behavior. He would not risk his bet on diplomacy by sending in troops too few in number to have a decisive effect on the outcome.
Another reason is that if Putin decides he has no alternative to sending the Russian military to protect the Russian residents in eastern and southern Ukraine, Putin will send in enough troops to do the job quickly as he did in Georgia when the American and Israeli trained Georgian army invaded South Ossetia and was destroyed in a few hours by the Russian response. If you hear that 100,000 Russian troops accompanied by air cover have invaded Ukraine, it would be a more believable claim.

This post was published at Paul Craig Roberts on August 28, 2014.

U.S./Ukraine Pushing Russian Invasion Propaganda – Episode 453

The following video was published by X22Report on Aug 28, 2014
The recovery illusion in the US is continuing. Q2 GDP has been revised hire to 4.2%. Pending home sales decreased YoY. The housing bubble mimics the housing bubble of 2008. US and Ukraine are losing the war against the people of Ukraine. Ukraine and the US are using the Russian invasion propaganda once again. Ukraine had purchased the same T-72 tanks from Hungary on Aug 2 that are now being reported in the Ukraine. President Obama wants to strike into Syria but needs a major event. The central bankers are prepared to carry out a false flag event on the people of the US
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Russia Invades Ukraine, ISIS Update, Israel-Hamas Cease Fire and More!

The following video was published by Greg Hunter on Aug 28, 2014
I have been predicting wider war in Ukraine, and now we have one with the Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine. The President said in a press conference that there is not going to be a military response to this escalation, but my sources say the U. S. has been covertly helping the Ukrainians. How do you think they have been able to overtake the pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine? Looks like Vladimir Putin has had enough and is now directly involved with his military.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, everyone is talking about ISIS or ISIL or, simply, the Islamic State. The Islamic State has taken over large parts of Iraq and Syria. Now, the Islamic State is threatening the Golan Heights on the Northern Israeli border. The President said in a press conference he ‘did not have a strategy’ for dealing with the Islamic State. What??? This after the Secretary of Defense and the head of the Joint Chiefs gave a press conference that said the Islamic State was an ‘imminent threat’ and that IS was ‘not like anything we have seen.’
The Israelis and Hamas have agreed to another cease-fire. The Israelis wanted Hamas to disarm before they opened the borders of Gaza and extended fishing off the coast. The new cease-fire allows the borders to be open for humanitarian aid and construction material to rebuild Gaza. Hamas did not agree to disarm. So, why did the Israelis cave in? I think that the military wing of Hamas has been damaged so badly that it is now much less of a threat. Israel sees wider war coming and wants Washington to resupply it with offensive weapons such as Sidewinder missiles that the Obama Administration stopped recently.

As If Millions Of European Voices Suddenly Cried Out In Terror: US Threatens More Russian Sanctions

After two rounds of escalating sanctions, which have pushed if not Russia then certainly Europe to the brink of a triple-dip recession, the US has a modest proposal for Russia: to cripple Europe’s economy even more, or said otherwise, even more sanctions for Russia!
#BREAKING US warns of possible new sanctions against Russia over Ukraine
— Agence France-Presse (@AFP) August 28, 2014

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

08.27.14 1830 ET: Reports Russian Armor has Invaded Ukraine, Heading towards Mariupol

While the ‘one’ continues to golf, the world moves forward in a perilous fashion. Reports are coming from the Ukrainian government and numerous reliable sources via Twitter and domestic news services that Russian troops have indeed crossed the frontier in Southeastern Ukraine and are well on their way to sealing the escape routes via the Sea of Azov creating panic in Kiev as the Ukrainian military appears to be disintegrating in the Donbas and facing possible annihilation in retaliation for the actions of the mercenary forces recruited by the Poroshenko government.

This post was published at John Galt Fla on August 27, 2014.

Summarizing The West’s Russia-Ukraine Propaganda

With regard to the goings-on in Ukraine, I have heard quite a few European and American voices piping in, saying that, yes, Washington and Kiev are fabricating an entirely fictional version of events for propaganda purposes, but then so are the Russians. They appear to assume that if their corporate media is infested with mendacious, incompetent buffoons who are only too happy to repeat the party line, then the Russians must be same or worse.
The reality is quite different. While there is a virtual news blackout with regard to Ukraine in the West, with little being shown beyond pictures of talking heads in Washington and Kiev, the media coverage in Russia is relentless, with daily bulletins describing troop movements, up-to-date maps of the conflict zones, and lots of eye-witness testimony, commentary and analysis. There is also a lively rumor mill on Russian and international social networks, which I tend to disregard because it’s mostly just that: rumor. In this environment, those who would attempt to fabricate a fictional narrative, as the officials in Washington and Kiev attempt to do, do not survive very long.
There is a great deal to say on the subject, but here I want to limit myself to rectifying some really, really basic misconceptions that Washington has attempted to impose on you via its various corporate media mouthpieces.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

Jane’s Defense Caught With Pants Down: Ukraine Admits Rebel Counteroffensive, Including March to the Sea

Jane’s Defense vs. Colonel Cassad Take II
In response to Jane’s Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong, a close friend wrote …
Jane’s has been in business giving good advice for a century and could only do so by giving good advice. Everything I have read suggests that the rebels (who include a lot of Russian paramilitary) would have been about finished this past week, but for supplies coming in through Russian interference. The captured Russian soldiers two days ago day only make the interference look more like direct assault. Colonel Cassad, on the other hand, appears to be a complete whack job who idolizes Joseph Stalin and thinks Putin is to weak.
My Response The political views of Colonel Cassad, whether you like him or despise him are irrelevant. His military analysis, denied by Kiev for the past two weeks, took precisely one more day to prove correct.
March to the SeaFor several days, I have been commenting on a rebel “march to the sea”, and the meaning of that march. On Wednesday, mainstream news verified the accuracy of my reports. For no other reason than Ukraine could no longer hide the truth, Ukraine finally admitted what it could have and should have admitted a week ago: Rebels extend fight against Kiev to Ukraine’s south coast

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on August 28, 2014.

Futures Slide As Ukraine Fighting “Re-Escalates” Again

If you like your de-escalation, you can keep your de-escalation. To think that heading into, and following the Russia-Ukraine “summit” earlier this week there was so much hope that the tense Ukraine civil war “situation” would somehow fix itself. Oh how wrong that thinking was considering overnight, following rebel separatists gains in the southeast of Ukraine which included the strategic port of Novoazvosk and which is “threatening to open up a new front in the war” including setting up a land corridor to Russia controlled-Crimea, Ukraine’s president Poroshenko for the first time came out and directly accused Russia of an “Invasion”, or at least a first time in recent weeks, saying he has convened the security council on the recent Russian actions.
And while none of this is particularly new or unexpected, that it happens on a day in which Europe reported yet another batch of very adverse data, including a big drop in European confidence as well as Spain sliding again into outright deflation, is hardly supportive of risk especially following yesterday’s Reuters comment that no ECB action is to be expected absent a dramatic slide in inflation. As a result bond yields have fallen to fresh record lows across the board, pushing US TSYs higher as well, while for the first time equities can’t find solace in the hope that bad news out of Europe is really great news out of the ECB, and as a result have tumbled.
In the Asian session overnight, major bourses are mostly trading softer following the lackluster performance in US and European equities yesterday. The Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite are down -0.5% and -0.6%, respectively. Away from equities, Treasuries have firmed further following on from yesterday’s rally. As we go to print the 10yr and 30yr UST yield is around 2.35% and 3.10%, respectively. Indeed following the 4bp and 6bp decline in the 10yr and 30yr UST yield yesterday, the 10s30s curve is now around 75bps and the flattest as it has ever been since 30 Sept 2009. The 10s/30s was nearly as wide as 100bps in February but in reality it has been on a flattening trend throughout the course of this year. The flatter US rates curve is also providing support to longer dated USD sovereigns in Asia.* Asian stocks fall with the Sensex outperforming and the Hang Seng underperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.3% to 148.3, Nikkei 225 down 0.5%, Hang Seng down 0.7%, Kospi up 0%, Shanghai Composite down 0.6%, ASX down 0.5%, Sensex up 0.3%. 2 out of 10 sectors rise with telcos, health care outperforming and energy, utilities underperforming

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

Ukraine Accuses Russia Of Launching Invasion, Then Promptly Retracts

It has been a busy morning: following a substantial surge in Ukraine separatist activity in the past 24 hours, which saw them capture the strategic Sea of Azov port town of Novoazovsk, a move which the NYT classified as “Ukraine Reports Russian Invasion on a New Front“, Ukraine has turned on the disinformation spigot to max resulting in a constant verbal, and headline, diarrhea as follows:
POROSHENKO CONVENES SECURITY COUNCIL ON RUSSIAN `INVASION’ POROSHENKO: SITUATION IN UKRAINE’S EAST DETERIORATED SHARPLY UKRAINE EU AMBASSADOR CALLS FOR JOINT EFFORT TO `STOP THIS WAR’ POROSHENKO SAYS SECURITY COUNCIL WILL DRAW UP FURTHER PLANS RUSSIAN ARMY CONTROLS NOVOAZOVSK: UKRAINE SECURITY COUNCIL YATSENYUK URGES UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO DEBATE UKRAINE SITUATION So sure was Ukraine that this time (unlike all those previous disinformation launches) Russia has invaded that Anton Herashchenko, adviser to Ukrainian Interior Ministry, actually commented on his Facebook page saying “Invasion of regular Russian army of Putin to Ukraine is an accomplished fact,’ Adding that Putin “de-facto places Ukraine on a war-footing at a time when a decree was signed to dissolve parliament.”
Well, yes, Ukraine has no government, but Russia of course denied all of it:
PESKOV WON’T COMMENT ON REBEL CLAIM OF RUSSIAN TROOP SUPPORT

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

NATO Says Over 1000 Russian Troops In Ukraine, “Extremely Worrying… Dire Situation”

Hot on the heels of Ukraine’s claims of ‘invasion’ and retraction of said claim, NATO is once again stepping in with strong claims about Russian ‘incursions’:
*NATO OFFICER: ESTIMATED 20,000 RUSSIAN TROOPS NEAR UKRAINE (not 17 or 45?) *NATO OFFICER: OVER 1,000 RUSSIAN TROOPS OPERATING IN UKRAINE *NATO OFFICER: 2ND FRONT RISKS CUTTING UKRAINE ARMY SUPPLY LINES *NATO OFFICER: NEW 2ND FRONT ‘EXTREMELY WORRYING’ FOR UKRAINE While NATO statements in the past have caused dramatic weakness in stocks (or been entirely shurgged off), it appears this time markets are taking their concerns more seriously as the officer states Ukraine’s forces are in a “dire situation.”
As Bloomberg reports,
NATO estimates there are currently 20,000 Russian troops in the border region to Ukraine, says a North Atlantic Treaty Organization military officer speaking to reporters today on condition of anonymity at supreme headquarters in Mons, Belgium. Well over 1,000 Russian troops now operating inside Ukraine: officer
Russian troops in Ukraine operating advanced equipment, serving as advisers for separatists: officer
As a result of Ukraine becoming more effective militarily starting in July, there has been a real upsurge in Russian activities of late. Cross border support, firing of rockets and artillery shells across border, supply of more weapons: officer

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

Donetsk & the Prisoner Parade

The political manipulations in Ukraine are fascinating and cruel. We have seen a very shameful display of politics in Donetsk with the ‘parade’ of prisoners which was intended to make Ukraine so angry they would want Donetsk to leave for no Ukrainian would want to live with such hatred. The aim is to stir up hatred towards Donetsk residents is a typical move of a region that is inferior and cannot win by sheer force.
The end goal is to separate Donetsk willingly. They want to inspire hatred for this will serve the goal of separation. This strategy is not uncommon in this region. However, inspiring such hatred creates long-term separation that never fades away and will last centuries. We have this between Israel and Palestine. It is really impossible to get long-term peace because there is underlying dislike of each other no matter what the enlightened ones may say.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 28, 2014.

German Security Expert Warns “War Between Russia And The West Is A Real Possibility”

“The de-escalation strategy with Moscow has failed,” warns Joachim Krause, Director of the Institute for Security Studies, concluding ominously that “A war between Russia and the West… is a real possibility.” As Handelsblatt reports, Krause states “we should not deny this reality any longer.”
From Handelsblatt (via Google Translate),
The Director of the Institute for Security Studies at the University of Kiel, Joachim Krause, holding a war between Russia and the West for possible, the West should now not clearly show the flag in view of the escalating situation in Ukraine. “A war between Russia and the West, I do not wind up currently, but if the West will not respond with the necessary determination and effectiveness, a war in a few years could be a real possibility,”Krause told Handelsblatt Online.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

Dangerous Crossroads: US-NATO To Deploy Ground Troops, Conduct Large Scale Naval Exercises against ‘Unnamed Enemy’

By professor Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research.
The World is at a dangerous Crossroads.
The Western military alliance is in an advanced state of readiness. And so is Russia.
Russia is heralded as the ‘Aggressor’. US-NATO military confrontation with Russia is contemplated.
Enabling legislation in the US Senate under ‘The Russian Aggression Prevention Act’ (RAPA) has ‘set the US on a path towards direct military conflict with Russia in Ukraine.’
Any US-Russian war is likely to quickly escalate into a nuclear war, since neither the US nor Russia would be willing to admit defeat, both have many thousands of nuclear weapons ready for instant use, and both rely upon Counterforce military doctrine that tasks their military, in the event of war, to preemptively destroy the nuclear forces of the enemy. (See Steven Starr, Global Research, August 22, 2014)
The Russian Aggression Prevention Act (RAPA) is the culmination of more than twenty years of US-NATO war preparations, which consist in the military encirclement of both Russia and China:
From the moment the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran. It has brought 12 countries in central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the NATO alliance. US military power is now directly on Russia’s borders. (Steven Kinzer, Boston Globe, March 3, 2014, emphasis added)
NATO’s top commander in Europe General Philip Breedlove (right) (AFP Photo / John Thys)
On July 24, in consultation with the Pentagon, NATO’s Europe commander General Philip Breedlove called for ‘stockpiling a base in Poland with enough weapons, ammunition and other supplies to support a rapid deployment of thousands of troops against Russia’.(RT, July 24, 2014). According to General Breedlove, NATO needs ‘pre-positioned supplies, pre-positioned capabilities and a basing area ready to rapidly accept follow-on forces’:
‘He plans to recommend placing supplies – weapons, ammunition and ration packs – at the headquarters to enable a sudden influx of thousands of Nato troops’ (Times, August 22, 2014, emphasis added)

This post was published at Washingtons Blog on August 27, 2014.

Russia Sanctions Hit German Consumers, ‘Economic Expectations Completely Collapse’

It starts out un-alarmingly. The optimism of German consumers weakens somewhat, according to the forward-looking Gfk survey, conducted on a monthly basis for the European Commission. So the overall index fell to 8.6 for September, from 8.9 in August. It was the first decline since January 2013.
The index bottomed in late 2008 below 2, after a breathtaking crash during the financial crisis. In late 2007, it had hovered above 9. Early 2014 was the first time since the prior bubble that the index broke above 8. And August’s level of 8.9 represented an ‘extremely optimistic economic outlook,’ as Gfk calls it. German consumers have been feeling good, and according to the headline index, they’re stillfeeling good up there somewhere in the rarefied air above 8.
But beneath the surface, there is serious trouble. Gfk reports that the sub-index of economic expectations, ‘in light of the intensified state of international affairs, completely collapses.’
It plunged 35.5 points to 10.4. The worst monthly plunge since the beginning of the survey in 1980. In a single month, it nearly wiped out all the gains of the boom of the last 12 months. Gfk cites the escalation of the situation in Iraq, Israel, the Eastern Ukraine, and particularly ‘the faster rotating sanctions spiral with Russia.’

This post was published at Wolf Street on August 27, 2014.

The Road To World War 3: Russia And Ukraine Are Now Engaged In A Shooting War

Russian soldiers and Ukrainian soldiers are now shooting at each other in eastern Ukraine. Could this conflict ultimately lead us down the road to World War 3? This week, a very robust force of “tanks, artillery and infantry” has opened up a “third front” in the Ukrainian civil war in a part of southeastern Ukraine that had not seen much fighting yet. Exhausted Ukrainian forces are suddenly being pushed back rapidly and many outsiders are wondering how the nearly defeated rebels were able to muster such impressive military strength all of a sudden. But it really isn’t much of a mystery. The tanks, artillery and infantry came from inside Russia. In recent days, Ukrainian units have captured ten Russian paratroopers and there have even been funerals for Russian paratroopers that have been killed in action back home in Russia. Even though it has become exceedingly obvious that Russia is now conducting a stealth invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is still choosing to deny it. But if he did publicly admit it, that would be even more dangerous. Barack Obama would be forced into a position of either having to do something about the Russian invasion or look weak in the eyes of the public. And as the Russians have already shown, they are more than willing to match any move that the Obama administration makes.
There has already been much written about who is to blame for all of this, and I am sure that much more will be written about who is to blame in the future. The western world is blaming “Russian aggression” for the mess in Ukraine. In return, the Russians point out that it was westerners that funded and organized the groups that violently overthrew the democratically-elected government of Ukraine. To the Russians, the current government of Ukraine is made up of neo-Nazi terrorist usurpers that are attempting to brutally oppress millions of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.
So the Russians seem themselves as “the good guys” in this conflict and so does the western world. But that is how most wars start. Both sides usually feel morally justified at the start of a conflict.
In the final analysis, however, is it really going to matter very much who was “right” and who was “wrong” if the end result is World War 3?
If the rebels in eastern Ukraine had been able to defeat the Kiev government forces on their own, Putin probably would have been content to let them do that. But instead, they had been pushed back to two major cities and seemed on the verge of defeat.
But now it is the Ukrainian forces that are experiencing “panic and wholesale retreat”…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on August 27th, 2014.

Ukraine Accuses Russia Of Imminent Gas Cut-Off, Russia Denies, Germans Anxious

So much for the Russia-Ukraine talks bringing the two sides together as even Germany’s Steinmeier could only say it’s “hard to say if breakthrough made.” Shortly after talks ended, Ukrainian Premier Yatsenyuk stated unequivocally that “we know about the plans of Russia to cut off transit even in European Union member countries,” followed by some notably heavy-on-the-war-rhetoric comments. The Russians were quick to respond, as the energy ministry was “surprised” by his statements on Ukraine gas transits and blasted that comments were an “attempt at EU disinformation.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/27/2014.

Ukraine Seeks Ceasefire Following ‘Very Tough and Complex” Talks With Putin

On August 10, Ukraine said No Cease-Fire Until Rebels Surrender.
Things changed.
This just in … On August 26, Reuters reported Poroshenko Seeks Ceasefire After ‘Very Tough’ Talks With Putin.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko promised after late-night talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to work on an urgent ceasefire plan to defuse the separatist conflict in the east of his former Soviet republic.
The first negotiations between the two leaders since June were described by Putin as positive, but he said it was not for Russia to get into the details of truce terms between the Kiev government and two rebel eastern regions.
“We didn’t substantively discuss that, and we, Russia, can’t substantively discuss conditions of a ceasefire, of agreements between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk. That’s not our business, it’s up to Ukraine itself,” he told reporters early on Wednesday.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on August 27, 2014.