Scotland Will Stay In: The Betting Sites Were Right

Once again, the betting sites had it right. The public opinion polls had it wrong.
The polls predicted a dead heat: too close to call. But it was easy to call, and the betting sites called it. The ‘no’votes smashed the ‘yes’ votes, 56% to 44%. It was not even close. The betting sites had been 80-20 in favor of ‘no.’ They had it right.
I figured the betting sites were right, and the polls were wrong. That’s why I went public and said Scotland would stay in the UK. I always stick with the betting sites. I ignore the polls if the betting sites are covering an event.
I knew Obama would win in 2012, and I said so repeatedly. I also said the House would stay Republican, and the Senate would remain Democrat. So accurate was InTrade on the Electoral College that it got 49 of the 50 states right.
Romney thought he would win. He did not trust InTrade and all the other betting sites. They all predicted Obama’s victory.
It’s a shame that InTrade went out of business. We were never told why…

This post was published at Tea Party Economist on September 19, 2014.