The following is a summary of our recent interview with Reva Goujon, which can be listened to on our site here or on iTunes here.
With recent unexpected shocks such as the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win, many are wondering, what’s the outlook for 2017 and beyond? This time on FS Insider, we spoke with Reva Goujon, Vice President of Global Analysis at Stratfor, about her take on the forces set to influence the world economy in the coming year.
The Shifts Aren’t Transitory
Some commentators have suggested that we are overreaching if we link the vote for Brexit with Trump’s victory, and that these don’t point to a general trend against globalization. Goujon, however, doesn’t see it that way.
‘I think this is very much a systemic shift that we’re seeing in the international system,’ she said. ‘The politics that may be shocking to many people are really just a manifestation of something much deeper going on.’
There are larger forces at work globally, she pointed out. We’re seeing slower economic growth overall. Global trade growth figures basically plateaued in 2015, and since then we’ve had a protracted slump, which tells us something bigger is going on there.
The reasons are complicated but include aging demographics, technological advancement that is leading to labor displacement, and concerns about immigration. These factors combined are driving a rise in nationalism and protectionism, populism and nativism, Goujon stated.
This post was published at FinancialSense on 12/07/2016.
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