JUDGING MY 2017 PREDICTIONS

‘Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge. ‘ – Lao Tzu
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.’ – Nils Bohr
Last year about this time I did a two part forecast for 2017: A BIASED 2017 FORECAST (PART ONE) and A BIASED 2017 FORECAST (PART TWO). I hadn’t re-read them until today. They were written just after the biggest presidential upset in modern history. Liberal tears were flowing freely and the accusations of Putin throwing the election to Trump had just begun. Two quotes from Part One are as pertinent today as they were then.
‘A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.’ – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
‘It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what is going on.’ – Amos Tversky

This post was published at The Burning Platform on Dec 27, 2019.