The Thucydides Trap or the Coming War with China

The Thucydides Trap or the Coming War with China
Editor’s Note: Bill is still up on the family ranch in northern Argentina. And his satellite Internet link is down. So there is no new update from him today. Instead, we republish a classic piece from Bill on the potential for a war between the US and China.
Athenian historian, political philosopher and general Thucydides (c. 460 – 395 BC). He authored The History of the Peloponnesian War, which recounts the war in the 5th century BC between Sparta and Athens. Today Thucydides is considered the father of scientific history (he was the first historian to focus on meticulously gathering evidence and leaving intervention by the gods out of historical accounts) as well as the father of the school of political realism, who was the first to study relations between nations on the basis of their relative economic and military power.
From Hegemon to Also-Ran
Somehow, like it or not, the world turns. Today’s hegemon becomes tomorrow’s also-ran. Today’s reserve currency becomes tomorrow’s toilet paper. Today’s cock o’ the walk becomes tomorrow’s dinner.
Hey, we didn’t create this system. We don’t even especially like it. But that’s just the way it is.
Whether you already have made a fortune, or are trying to build one, you need to be very careful about what currency … or currencies … your wealth is denominated in.
The End of History?
Governments were set up to take control. Ruling elites – by force of arms – established laws, protocols and armies to try to prevent anyone from taking their place. Their wealth, power and status were to be preserved at all costs. But in the 18th and 19th centuries, firearms started to become ubiquitous. It was harder for elites to maintain their authority over the masses.
Every farmer on the American frontier had a rifle. A ragtag band of insurgents in the American colonies (with the help of the French Navy) could defeat the best army in the world. An out-of-work actor could buy a handgun and pop off a president.
Unable to stay in control by force alone, governments had to resort to fraud. Ordinary citizens were allowed to vote on who would rule over them. They were also promised the fruits of others’ labors, if they voted the right way.
For a time, it looked as though this new model – social democracies run by flaming politicians and professional functionaries – had defeated all rivals. The Soviet Union – which relied on more old-fashioned blunt force to run its slave-driven economy – fell in about 1991.
Maoist China had thrown in the towel, more or less, 10 years earlier when the country’s ‘paramount leader,’ Deng Xiaoping, announced, ‘To get rich is glorious.’ (Historians now claim he never uttered those words. But they accurately captured his vision for China.)

This post was published at Acting-Man on April 3, 2015.